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S Park Finner
BetaMax.
192
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Posted - 2013.08.04 15:21:00 -
[1] - Quote
TL:DR No players, no game. Wrong players, no game.
A comment in another thread got me thinking about death spirals.
The forums in all current games are filled with people complaining about their personal Injustice of the Week (IotW)(tm). But in most games the majority of players just don't care. The complainers are a vocal minority. They may be opinion leaders -- but more and more that role seems to be falling to youtube, twitch and the more traditional avenues of media reviews and word-of-mouth.
I have placed more weight, in the past, on the informal "first play" videos of regular gamers than I have on the forums. For DUST 514 they have generally been neutral or negative. Surprisingly, recently, they have been more positive. Not good, just better. There are several excellent "professional" HOW-TO youtube series -- but they are increasingly trending more negative.
Unfortunately, for DUST 514, all the other channels of review have either ignored the game or been negative from the start. And as the player population becomes more concentrated in long-term die-hard players the vocal minority is becoming the vocal majority and it's hangers-on.
For the player base this is a death spiral. The rate of adoption of new players slows as existing players create a more and more hostile environment for new players. The long term players become increasingly bitter. When they give up the people that are left are even more hostile and with no new blood in the game they become more bitter and more of them leave.
CCP can be as committed as it wants to building DUST 514. They can reorganize, restaff, and drive hard for better mechanics, more content and polished design. But they need a body of players that is representative of the general population of players to test their work against.
I don't have their internal numbers but I suspect they don't have that at this stage of the game. What they have is those long term players that simply don't represent the universe of players that, in the long run, will be necessary to sustain the game.
Lastly, CCPs marketing has be abysmal. The spokespeople have been disconnected with the initial target community and the channel messages have been superficial. I don't know why. I suspect that the lack of discipline in the project overall combined with a fundamental misunderstanding of the target community has contributed to the marketing confusion.
There are three things I believe should factor into CCP's thinking if they hope to persist.
1) Clearly identify the community you need to sustain the game you want to build.
1) Recognize the target player base you need may well not be the player base you have.
2) Give marketing a clear target, integrate it with development and fund it at a level where it can effectively drive the game's image.
In the end, no matter how committed: no players, no game -- target the wrong community or fail to understand the community you really need, no game.
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S Park Finner
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Posted - 2013.08.04 16:28:00 -
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Mobius Wyvern wrote:[>Vocal Minority
>Makes post about Vocal Majority Ha! Well said. But while we all want the game we would like to play that doesn't mean that game would be a viable business.
Free-to-play is about low threshold for adoption and drawing players into environments where they are having enough fun that they identify with the game. When they do they are willing to cough up some cash to participate with badges of identity like customized in-game gear and out-of-game elements like action figures or spaceship models.
Part of that model is building buzz and maintaining it. It allows you to generate the feeling of elitism without the initial barriers of elitism. Combined with game play that eventually generates a true elite to which the mass of players can ascribe or view as thought leaders is the most difficult balance of mass-appeal game design.
If CCP wanted to build a game for a small segment of players they could have used a different model -- participative crowed funding, early subscription -- with a very clear target design. They didn't. And they have what they have.
So I stick with my assertion that in addition to making the game mechanically better they have to take care they don't make it for too narrow an audience.
That being said there is an alternative. They can make it for a narrow audience but at a much greater cost over a longer period of time. In some ways I believe that was the mind set they brought to the effort in the first place. That's fine. But to do that they still have to maintain a sustaining player base. The death spiral I talked about keeps chipping away at that base and could -- I emphasize could -- create a situation where going on just makes no sense for CCP. |
S Park Finner
BetaMax.
194
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Posted - 2013.08.04 16:35:00 -
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Acezero 44 wrote:players come an go, but everyone feels important. ... having a vocal majority has never existed on forums from what Iv seen. Of course you are right. And the "Vocal Majority" point was more rhetorical than fact.
But I still believe -- from a fair amount of anecdotal information drawn from videos, in-game chat and relatively neutral forums -- that the player base is becoming smaller and more concentrated. That leads me to believe it is becoming less representative of the larger community. And that in turn leads to further concentration.
If CCP relies too heavily on that community -- either through in-game metrics or forum posts or whatever -- they risk the trajectory I suggest.
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S Park Finner
Sinq Laison Gendarmes
Gallente Federation
195
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Posted - 2013.08.05 13:09:00 -
[4] - Quote
Panther Alpha wrote:I just going to say it ... CCP is appealing to the wrong people... there.. i say it  A software developer can target any audience it wants -- but it does have to target an audience and be sure everyone in the team understands the target.
Leadership means identifying a product for an audience that the audience doesn't yet know it wants.
Sometimes developers get so enamoured of an idea or a technology they they can't see how anyone could not want it. The audience defaults to "everyone who thinks this is as great an idea as we do." If it turns out there are enough other folks around that agree then maybe they can pull it off. Sometimes there aren't enough people who agree -- or the space they are trying to enter has established players that define the way people look at the product.
To overcome those kinds of problems they need a clear vision, understanding of their target audience, perfect execution and world class customer communication. When you set extraordinary goals you need exceptional performance from everyone involved -- or so deep a well of resources that you can keep after it until your on-the-job training catches up with your vision.
I strongly suspect CCP believes they can chip away at this at DUST 514 until they get it right -- fixing the various components of their organization, vision, game mechanics and messaging as they go on the budget they can afford.
I admire people that persist in the face of difficulty and open new vistas. It's a crap-shoot though. Sometimes you fight your way over the mountain and you find a fertile valley filled with friendly people that love what you accomplished. Sometimes you find a desert. |
S Park Finner
Sinq Laison Gendarmes
Gallente Federation
195
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Posted - 2013.08.05 13:54:00 -
[5] - Quote
Iron Wolf Saber wrote: ... I do feel that as long as CCP doesn't pull the rug from underneath Dust 514 and keep developing it, its going to trend like Eve will. ... There are indications the vision of a comprehensive far future universe with player sandbox experiences from FPS to building to space combat is one with wide enough appeal it can sustain a profitable business. I agree the fundamental is how persistent CCP is and can afford to be.
Persistence, though, isn't enough. CCP seem to be moving toward more organizational rigour. I feel CCP need to accelerate that movement if they are going to succeed long term. |
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