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Onesimus Tarsus
is-a-Corporation
3234
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Posted - 2015.04.04 13:38:00 -
[1] - Quote
Did some math, and at the rate we're perma-losing players, we have about 600 days left before you're down to the last two players duking it out over and over. Much fewer I would suppose as matchmaking and teambuilding disintegrates from the lowering player count.
So, my guess is 325 days, and then servers are re-tasked as score-keepers for Game of Candy Birds or eHarmony hubs.
KDR matchmaking fixes everything but the stupid purple Quafe stuff.
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DR DEESE NUTS
59
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Posted - 2015.04.04 13:43:00 -
[2] - Quote
So we have a year left? People would have moved to ps4 by then and dust is profitable so maby dust on ps4 in 2 years. Hopefully matchmaking retains any new players.
The USS m`dick
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Onesimus Tarsus
is-a-Corporation
3234
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Posted - 2015.04.04 13:48:00 -
[3] - Quote
DR DEESE NUTS wrote:So we have a year left? People would have moved to ps4 by then and dust is profitable so maby dust on ps4 in 2 years. Hopefully matchmaking retains any new players.
Let's hope.
KDR matchmaking fixes everything but the stupid purple Quafe stuff.
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TheD1CK
Dead Man's Game
RUST415
1881
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Posted - 2015.04.04 14:01:00 -
[4] - Quote
INB4
Ambush becomes just Hughes and manboar fighting each other 1v1 over and over again lol |
gustavo acosta
Capital Acquisitions LLC
Bad Intention
1118
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Posted - 2015.04.04 16:03:00 -
[5] - Quote
TheD1CK wrote:INB4
Ambush becomes just Hughes and manboar fighting each other 1v1 over and over again lol
Who?
GimmeDatSuhWeet isk
We found a new pope to teach shield users how to shield tank, all hail pope redblood the 6th
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Denchlad 7
Negative-Feedback.
1892
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Posted - 2015.04.04 17:01:00 -
[6] - Quote
TheD1CK wrote:INB4
Ambush becomes just lolNameless and lolDavidCollins fighting each other 1v1 over and over again lol
FTFY
"Dench stop hitting your head you Caldari pinball" - m621 zma
Currently on Dust hiatus.
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DERP33
Glitched Connection
22
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Posted - 2015.04.04 22:33:00 -
[7] - Quote
Show me the math, then I'l believe you. |
Leither Yiltron
Molon Labe.
General Tso's Alliance
1127
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Posted - 2015.04.04 22:40:00 -
[8] - Quote
Onesimus Tarsus wrote:Did some math...
What math would that be, precisely? The question of predicting future trends is incredibly difficult to answer precisely. Either you need to make a relatively elaborate argument about the correctness of whatever model led you to this conclusion, or you're just flat out not correct.
Long term roadmap by Aeon Amadi
Have a pony
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One Eyed King
Nos Nothi
9067
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Posted - 2015.04.04 23:00:00 -
[9] - Quote
Your assumption is that the numbers continue the same path.
Extrapolating graphs and numbers in the future is always a crapshoot at best.
Something could easily happen that makes players leave more quickly. At the same time, matchmaking could get worked out and we could end up with growth, or even just a slower decline.
Former CEO of the Land of the BIind.
Any double entendre is unintended I assure you.
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Mortishai Belmont
G.L.O.R.Y
General Tso's Alliance
700
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Posted - 2015.04.04 23:26:00 -
[10] - Quote
I'm not gonna guess you can show your work for your calculations can ya?
The new C.EO. of G.L.O.R.Y,
(~..)~ Now on Youtube ~(..~)
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2Berries
Ghosts of Dawn
General Tso's Alliance
769
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Posted - 2015.04.04 23:34:00 -
[11] - Quote
Math all the things!
Evening Boys, Hows the water?
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Adipem Nothi
Nos Nothi
8554
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Posted - 2015.04.04 23:49:00 -
[12] - Quote
DR DEESE NUTS wrote:Hopefully matchmaking retains any new players.
Aquarhead to the rescue!
Shoot scout with yes.
- Ripley Riley
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Xocoyol Zaraoul
Superior Genetics
3750
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Posted - 2015.04.05 00:23:00 -
[13] - Quote
DERP33 wrote:Show me the math, then I'l believe you.
This, basically.
http://eve-offline.net/?server=dust
Show me your magic, those bottom three graphs are calling for you.
"You see those red dots over there?
Go and shoot them until you see a +50 on the screen" - Arkena Wyrnspire
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One Eyed King
Nos Nothi
9072
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Posted - 2015.04.05 00:29:00 -
[14] - Quote
My point with extrapolating still stands. If you were to take this information in October of 2013 and make the same conclusion, you would have seen a drastic decrease, and expect the lifetime to be a few months.
If you took from that October to July 2014, you would expect Dust to grow, not go offline.
There is nothing in that data the suggests events that will happen in the future, or how players will react to it negatively or positively.
It might not even have something to do with CCP, maybe something that happens in another country, like Brazil getting rid of the insane tariffs they have, or something else that Rattati releases that goes gangbusters and new player retention rates skyrocket (or plummets).
Speculation is pointless.
Former CEO of the Land of the BIind.
Any double entendre is unintended I assure you.
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Tech Ohm Eaven
Storm Wind Strikeforce
Caldari State
1785
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Posted - 2015.04.05 01:36:00 -
[15] - Quote
are many leaving ps3 to buy ps4?
my friends list shows many leaving ps3 to play ps4 games
is ps4 being sold in vast amounts?
yes
is dust 514 getting huge monthly content updates?
no
are there many new ps4 games arriving in the next few months
yes
data shows folks leaving dust 514 ?
yes
tick tock tick tock ps3 getting old and traded in for a ps4 ?
ps4 sales data points to this
ps3 sales slowing down ?
yes
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Pseudogenesis
Nos Nothi
2490
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Posted - 2015.04.05 02:29:00 -
[16] - Quote
One Eyed King wrote:My point with extrapolating still stands. If you were to take this information in October of 2013 and make the same conclusion, you would have seen a drastic decrease, and expect the lifetime to be a few months. If you took from that October to July 2014, you would expect Dust to grow, not go offline. There is nothing in that data the suggests events that will happen in the future, or how players will react to it negatively or positively. It might not even have something to do with CCP, maybe something that happens in another country, like Brazil getting rid of the insane tariffs they have, or something else that Rattati releases that goes gangbusters and new player retention rates skyrocket (or plummets). Speculation is pointless.
This precisely. Also peak concurrent isn't the most accurate metric for player activity, so whatever predictions you hope to make are double inaccurate.
Stabby-stabber extraordinaire Gû¼+¦GòÉGòÉn¦ñ
I stabbed Rattati once, you know.
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Vicious Minotaur
2273
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Posted - 2015.04.05 02:39:00 -
[17] - Quote
I reverse engineeered each model of the PS3. Based on my findings, due to intentionally shoddy electrical wiring, silicone cobwebbing at a mirometer level and tin wiskers being formed, PS3s are designed to fail, and will only last another three months before mechanical stresses cause a catastrophic malfunction at a sub-software level.
Thanks to my findings, DUST is guaranteed to have a playerbase of zero in approximately 96.2 days.
Better move on to a PS4 before it is too late.
I am a minotaur.
a+üa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa+üa¦ça¦ça¦ça¦ça¦ça¦ça¦ça¦ça¦ça¦ça¦ça¦ça¦ça¦ça¦ça¦ça¦ça¦ça¦ça¦ça+üa+¦a+¦a+¦a+¦a+¦a+¦a+¦a+¦a+¦a+¦a+¦a+¦a+¦a+¦a+¦a+¦a+¦a+¦a+¦a+¦a+üa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa+üa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ëa¦ë
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One Eyed King
Nos Nothi
9077
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Posted - 2015.04.05 02:41:00 -
[18] - Quote
Tech Ohm Eaven wrote:are many leaving ps3 to buy ps4?
my friends list shows many leaving ps3 to play ps4 games
is ps4 being sold in vast amounts?
yes
is dust 514 getting huge monthly content updates?
no
are there many new ps4 games arriving in the next few months
yes
data shows folks leaving dust 514 ?
yes
tick tock tick tock ps3 getting old and traded in for a ps4 ?
ps4 sales data points to this
ps3 sales slowing down ?
yes
Are US and EU the only country that buys consoles?
No.
Are we the only two regions that play Dust?
No.
China has recently been open to using foreign gaming devices, and Gamestop has recently accepted trade ins of the PS2 again, which is a console 2 generations old, because of demand for it.
The numbers you were quoting were probably new console sales. You neglected to take into account used console sales, as well as the current number of consoles of both generations in use. Not to mention your use of anecdotal evidence of "your friends" as that is always a poor way of gathering information.
If you lived in Costa Rica and in a hut you couldn't base global console markets based on what your friends had, as they sometimes don't even have electricity.
Speculation is pointless.
Former CEO of the Land of the BIind.
Any double entendre is unintended I assure you.
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Soraya Xel
Abandoned Privilege
Top Men.
6025
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Posted - 2015.04.05 02:47:00 -
[19] - Quote
Well, another 600 days on an FPS we've already had for a couple years is actually pretty good for most FPS games. ;)
But obviously this extrapolation doesn't take into account any possible future changes to the game and/or the platform the game runs on or whatever.
CPM1 Elect. Thanks for all your support. [email protected] for ideas, thoughts, and feedback.
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LOOKMOM NOHANDS
451
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Posted - 2015.04.05 02:51:00 -
[20] - Quote
Nicely done on the numbers.
I have a couple of questions tho.
In new player creation did you account for the fact that we have gone from like 50% of those being people farming alts and trolling down to like 5 - 10% because of alt farming getting nerfed?
In the decline on daily logins did you account for the changes in seasons contributing to people being on less thus driving the max online players down?
Don't get me wrong I totally agree that the graphs are going in the wrong direction until something drastically changes I am just playing devils advocate for all the fanboys that are going to say there is no way for you to calculate that. |
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Joseph Ridgeson
warravens
3635
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Posted - 2015.04.05 03:12:00 -
[21] - Quote
Soraya Xel wrote:Well, another 600 days on an FPS we've already had for a couple years is actually pretty good for most FPS games. ;)
But obviously this extrapolation doesn't take into account any possible future changes to the game and/or the platform the game runs on or whatever.
The first part of the statement is a joke. Kind of sad that First Person Shooters as a whole are so seasonal now.
The second is more to the point. We only know that DUST will not last forever. This is a simple fact as nothing lasts forever. There will come a time when all games that are server based turn their servers off and we are left with nothing but the memories. It is just a matter of what will happen to DUST that extends the life. A big expansion, a push to a new platform, DUST suddenly becoming epic beyond scale. All possibilities that extend that life and make it difficult to put an exact date.
But we do know this: there is no way that DUST can survive on the PS3. If CCP wants DUST to not just be a footnote in their library like World of Darkness or The Danger Game, it is going to have to be moved to something else. Sony will probably support the PS3 for another two, maybe three years and that is the hard limit. The soft limit, where people fully move on to other systems is potentially even sooner.
DUST as it stands now, is going to be reaching the point where it won't continue to grow. DUST, as the idea, may very well not be. It just comes down to if CCP wants to go "hey, we made this game, made some money, and that's it" or "we made this game, made some money, now lets expand it."
"This is B.S! This is B.S! I paid money! Cash money, dollars money, cash money!"
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Onesimus Tarsus
is-a-Corporation
3244
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Posted - 2015.04.05 03:16:00 -
[22] - Quote
LOOKMOM NOHANDS wrote:Nicely done on the numbers.
I have a couple of questions tho.
In new player creation did you account for the fact that we have gone from like 50% of those being people farming alts and trolling down to like 5 - 10% because of alt farming getting nerfed?
In the decline on daily logins did you account for the changes in seasons contributing to people being on less thus driving the max online players down?
Don't get me wrong I totally agree that the graphs are going in the wrong direction until something drastically changes I am just playing devils advocate for all the fanboys that are going to say there is no way for you to calculate that.
There is no precise calculation for anything, but considering the logical plateau we went through even after the Fanfest debacle, and the staunching of the wound that reducing alt-farming might have produced (although I believe it somewhat did the opposite), this title is still bleeding population. If the MM shift helps, which it really might, you might, just might get closer to the hard-line 600. But, nah, one calendar year at most, and Dust takes the dirt-nap.
KDR matchmaking fixes everything but the stupid purple Quafe stuff.
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