DUST Search - DJINN B4 Lotto Scam [Starting Pot: 2.2 Million]

Jadek Menaheim wrote:

Borne Velvalor wrote:

DJINN B4lock wrote:

UPDATE: 2014.01.11 15:10 Unlimited Ticket Buy-In has been discontinued. Players may only purchase up to 15 million ISK in tickets. Additional tickets may be won as rewards from challenges and bounties at an uncapped rate.

I was going to throw 200+ million into the pot to raise my chances to 70-80%. In such a scenario, I'd win back my ISK (since it's added to the pot) said amount of the time and make the same selling the Templar gear, only losing the same the inverse amount of the time.

There goes the whole ball game. Guess I'll just toss a measly 15m in later if it's still worth it. Average yield after losses for 15m is ~45m. Still very good (better than a high investment since only the pot grows in proportion and not the outside investment) but the variance in outcomes is so high with such low odds that to obtain said yield with any reliability would require multiple purchases and you aren't going to run a lotto like this every day.

Oh, well. The yield was dropping like a hot rock anyway since so many players decided to buy in recently. 200m was 85% chance for victory early on the 10th. It's now 71%. It'll probably be 50% by the time 1.8 hits which is too risky for my blood. Then we're looking at 500m+ to get the same odds to make it worth it short-term and I just can't raise that much capital, even with limitless buy in.

TL;DR: High pot, few investors for a fair amount of time made flooding pot highly beneficial. Lack of unlimited buy-in and higher outside interest makes it less beneficial.

Theoretically you still have the option to create multiple PSN accounts to deposit 15 million a piece. However, I see that as more of a hassle than anything; especially noting the limiting chances of return which you discussed.


Author	Thread Statistics \| Show CCP posts - 2 post(s)
Borne Velvalor Endless Hatred 2112	Posted - 2014.01.10 06:11:00 - [1] - Quote By securing a Templar set, you have really gotten my interest. I assume that Castor has no problems with the winner flipping it for hundreds of millions if they already have a set of Templar gear? Many suits I've worn, many burdens I've borne, for the oaths I've sworn. Panda.
Borne Velvalor Endless Hatred 2113	Posted - 2014.01.10 06:20:00 - [2] - Quote Lorhak Gannarsein wrote: Eh. I'll shoot you a few mil when I get on next. Already have a Templar set, tho :P Like Borne said - anything wrong with moving it further? I have a plan that, provided someone else doesn't use it, could make us over a hundred million each 85% of the time with only a 15% chance of losing the same. I will mail you in game in the next few days. Eat this message after you read it. Many suits I've worn, many burdens I've borne, for the oaths I've sworn. Panda.
Borne Velvalor Endless Hatred 2115	Posted - 2014.01.10 08:36:00 - [3] - Quote Lorhak Gannarsein wrote: Borne Velvalor wrote: Lorhak Gannarsein wrote: Eh. I'll shoot you a few mil when I get on next. Already have a Templar set, tho :P Like Borne said - anything wrong with moving it further? I have a plan that, provided someone else doesn't use it, could make us over a hundred million each 85% of the time with only a 15% chance of losing the same. I will mail you in game in the next few days. Eat this message after you read it. I am typing this with my tongue, owing to my iPhone being in my mouth. Expect ~10M on the 15th - can't get on until then. I'll send you details by the time you get on for sure, then, no need to send ISK until everything is worked out. You can look over the details and decide when you get on. Our odds are now at 82% after the updated ledger, 70% for a lower investment option, so it might not hold and be worthwhile. Although since I generally run positive ISK, the risk is mostly irrelevant compared to the yield, which will stay high. On the 15th I will send the most up to date odds. If this draw were happening tomorrow, I would have my tongue glued to my phone as I typed as well, since the numbers at the moment are fantastic. Many suits I've worn, many burdens I've borne, for the oaths I've sworn. Panda.
Borne Velvalor Endless Hatred 2117	Posted - 2014.01.10 09:14:00 - [4] - Quote Well, the odds will probably be drastically shifting in the next couple of weeks. Could be bad for some, depending on what they're looking for. Everyone, divert your eyes from my posts! Look at these pandas! Many suits I've worn, many burdens I've borne, for the oaths I've sworn. Panda.
Borne Velvalor Endless Hatred 2129	Posted - 2014.01.13 07:54:00 - [5] - Quote DJINN B4lock wrote: UPDATE: 2014.01.11 15:10 Unlimited Ticket Buy-In has been discontinued. Players may only purchase up to 15 million ISK in tickets. Additional tickets may be won as rewards from challenges and bounties at an uncapped rate. I was going to throw 200+ million into the pot to raise my chances to 70-80%. In such a scenario, I'd win back my ISK (since it's added to the pot) said amount of the time and make the same selling the Templar gear, only losing the same the inverse amount of the time. There goes the whole ball game. Guess I'll just toss a measly 15m in later if it's still worth it. Average yield after losses for 15m is ~45m. Still very good (better than a high investment since only the pot grows in proportion and not the outside investment) but the variance in outcomes is so high with such low odds that to obtain said yield with any reliability would require multiple purchases and you aren't going to run a lotto like this every day. Oh, well. The yield was dropping like a hot rock anyway since so many players decided to buy in recently. 200m was 85% chance for victory early on the 10th. It's now 71%. It'll probably be 50% by the time 1.8 hits which is too risky for my blood. Then we're looking at 500m+ to get the same odds to make it worth it short-term and I just can't raise that much capital, even with limitless buy in. TL;DR: High pot, few investors for a fair amount of time made flooding pot highly beneficial. Lack of unlimited buy-in and higher outside interest makes it less beneficial. Many suits I've worn, many burdens I've borne, for the oaths I've sworn. Panda.
Borne Velvalor Endless Hatred 2131	Posted - 2014.01.14 07:33:00 - [6] - Quote Jadek Menaheim wrote: Borne Velvalor wrote: DJINN B4lock wrote: UPDATE: 2014.01.11 15:10 Unlimited Ticket Buy-In has been discontinued. Players may only purchase up to 15 million ISK in tickets. Additional tickets may be won as rewards from challenges and bounties at an uncapped rate. I was going to throw 200+ million into the pot to raise my chances to 70-80%. In such a scenario, I'd win back my ISK (since it's added to the pot) said amount of the time and make the same selling the Templar gear, only losing the same the inverse amount of the time. There goes the whole ball game. Guess I'll just toss a measly 15m in later if it's still worth it. Average yield after losses for 15m is ~45m. Still very good (better than a high investment since only the pot grows in proportion and not the outside investment) but the variance in outcomes is so high with such low odds that to obtain said yield with any reliability would require multiple purchases and you aren't going to run a lotto like this every day. Oh, well. The yield was dropping like a hot rock anyway since so many players decided to buy in recently. 200m was 85% chance for victory early on the 10th. It's now 71%. It'll probably be 50% by the time 1.8 hits which is too risky for my blood. Then we're looking at 500m+ to get the same odds to make it worth it short-term and I just can't raise that much capital, even with limitless buy in. TL;DR: High pot, few investors for a fair amount of time made flooding pot highly beneficial. Lack of unlimited buy-in and higher outside interest makes it less beneficial. Theoretically you still have the option to create multiple PSN accounts to deposit 15 million a piece. However, I see that as more of a hassle than anything; especially noting the limiting chances of return which you discussed. Agreed. I wouldn't bother even if interest slowed down, since your intention is to limit each player to 15m and would enforce said limit if you could, so it would essentially be cheating. Many suits I've worn, many burdens I've borne, for the oaths I've sworn. Panda.