DUST Search - CEO Hilmar Pétursson Says, "No PS4 For You!"

Zeylon Rho wrote:

dazlb72 wrote:

PS4 pre orders are sold out, you will now struggle to get one before christmas. Some of these people will sell their PS3's to help pay for it. The "not many people will get one at launch" argument just doesn't seem to ring true. 80% of the people on my PSN friends list are getting one. The launch titles are looking strong (much stronger than they did for PS3) the only black mark i can give it so far is the announcement made about compatible headsets. Roll on November.........

You're not using logic.

Let's assume every single PS4 pre-order that sells is going to hardcore shooter-fan that will absolutely never play anything unless it's PS4/Xbone ever again, because.... mental issues or something. That could be like 1.5 million consoles! Wow, think of all the DUST PLAYERS?!

What's their potential audience on the PS3? Well, there were 70 million sold a year ago.

So, if you compare the two, the pre-order estimate of the PS4 (as of three days ago) is 2% of the current sold number of PS3s. Even if EVERY single pre-order is a current PS3 owner that literally tosses their PS3 in the trash, IT'S STILL ONLY 2%!

Here's an analogy for you: Now, let's imagine for a moment that you're selling lemonade (or danishes, peanuts, whatever) to a crowd of 100 people, but you're frustrated because you think more people should be buying them. Someone says, there's going to be this other group of people you could sell stuff to, and it's huge!!! THERE'S ALREADY 2 PEOPLE THERE!! That's basically how stupid it would be for them to try to fracture their tiny pool of devs to chase a miniscule market.

Even if you want to get a PS4 (and I think it looks like a great console), it's silly to assume that:

A) People buying a PS4 will get rid of a PS3 when the PS4 isn't BC. Some people will trade all their stuff, sure. Those tend to be idiots and kids though (from experience in retail).

B) The majority of the buyers would necessarily be fans of or looking to play some sort of MMO shooter. Even super popular games like Madden and CoD only appeal to a certain segment of the public.

C) That the PS4 market will quickly eclipse an already established console market (math already makes that obvious). Wii, 360, PS3... all of those had big launches where they sold out. They still didn't come close to the numbers of the existing consoles for some time. Do you think the PS2 became unpopular when the PS3 launched? Even with the PS3 frickin SOLD OUT, the PS2 still sold like crazy. It's actually a lot easier for them to sell PS3s when the new stuff is all sold out.

D) That everyone will always want the newest console. From retail experience, other consoles wind up getting a little rush around a launch too. Old consoles often get cheaper when new ones are released, and if you're shopping around you can suddenly find a bluray-player that's super cheap with a giant game library vs. an expensive untested console with a handful of "launch titles" - the latter option is a lot more appealing for many people.

If Dust hasn't made any overtures towards jumping to PC/PS4/Whatever in a couples years, then it'll be an issue.


Author	Thread Statistics \| Show CCP posts - 0 post(s)
dazlb72 HELGHAN EXILES 84	Posted - 2013.10.12 18:42:00 - [1] - Quote Lets be honest, with the new titles that are being released, does it really matter that dust isn't coming?
dazlb72 HELGHAN EXILES 84	Posted - 2013.10.13 02:04:00 - [2] - Quote PS4 pre orders are sold out, you will now struggle to get one before christmas. Some of these people will sell their PS3's to help pay for it. The "not many people will get one at launch" argument just doesn't seem to ring true. 80% of the people on my PSN friends list are getting one. The launch titles are looking strong (much stronger than they did for PS3) the only black mark i can give it so far is the announcement made about compatible headsets. Roll on November.........
dazlb72 HELGHAN EXILES 84	Posted - 2013.10.13 15:45:00 - [3] - Quote Zeylon Rho wrote: dazlb72 wrote: PS4 pre orders are sold out, you will now struggle to get one before christmas. Some of these people will sell their PS3's to help pay for it. The "not many people will get one at launch" argument just doesn't seem to ring true. 80% of the people on my PSN friends list are getting one. The launch titles are looking strong (much stronger than they did for PS3) the only black mark i can give it so far is the announcement made about compatible headsets. Roll on November......... You're not using logic. Let's assume every single PS4 pre-order that sells is going to hardcore shooter-fan that will absolutely never play anything unless it's PS4/Xbone ever again, because.... mental issues or something. That could be like 1.5 million consoles! Wow, think of all the DUST PLAYERS?! What's their potential audience on the PS3? Well, there were 70 million sold a year ago. So, if you compare the two, the pre-order estimate of the PS4 (as of three days ago) is 2% of the current sold number of PS3s. Even if EVERY single pre-order is a current PS3 owner that literally tosses their PS3 in the trash, IT'S STILL ONLY 2%! Here's an analogy for you: Now, let's imagine for a moment that you're selling lemonade (or danishes, peanuts, whatever) to a crowd of 100 people, but you're frustrated because you think more people should be buying them. Someone says, there's going to be this other group of people you could sell stuff to, and it's huge!!! THERE'S ALREADY 2 PEOPLE THERE!! That's basically how stupid it would be for them to try to fracture their tiny pool of devs to chase a miniscule market. Even if you want to get a PS4 (and I think it looks like a great console), it's silly to assume that: A) People buying a PS4 will get rid of a PS3 when the PS4 isn't BC. Some people will trade all their stuff, sure. Those tend to be idiots and kids though (from experience in retail). B) The majority of the buyers would necessarily be fans of or looking to play some sort of MMO shooter. Even super popular games like Madden and CoD only appeal to a certain segment of the public. C) That the PS4 market will quickly eclipse an already established console market (math already makes that obvious). Wii, 360, PS3... all of those had big launches where they sold out. They still didn't come close to the numbers of the existing consoles for some time. Do you think the PS2 became unpopular when the PS3 launched? Even with the PS3 frickin SOLD OUT, the PS2 still sold like crazy. It's actually a lot easier for them to sell PS3s when the new stuff is all sold out. D) That everyone will always want the newest console. From retail experience, other consoles wind up getting a little rush around a launch too. Old consoles often get cheaper when new ones are released, and if you're shopping around you can suddenly find a bluray-player that's super cheap with a giant game library vs. an expensive untested console with a handful of "launch titles" - the latter option is a lot more appealing for many people. If Dust hasn't made any overtures towards jumping to PC/PS4/Whatever in a couples years, then it'll be an issue.