Leither Yiltron
KILL-EM-QUICK
RISE of LEGION
600
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Posted - 2013.07.09 23:02:00 -
[1] - Quote
I'm afraid that the new reattacking system is another buff to small teams of core players, which is already the predominant mode of operation in Planetary Conquest for the moment. Basically it allows for a dynamic timer manipulation at the cost of clones. Here's the scenario:
MLG Pro Skeelz [MPS] is a small corp with around 100 characters in it. Counting alts and activity, their nightly PC contingent is a core of 16 players who are on the bleeding edge of SP gain (18 mil +). As such their win ratio in PC would probably be over 50% without the gear advantage. With it, they're consistently pulling up to 70-80%.
Immense Elitists [IEL] is a much larger organization. They have 500+ characters, and so they can run two teams simultaneously if they want to on a given night. They have two very competitive teams with but with average 9mil SP per players (so they're out-geared by MPS)
IEL have a numbers advantage and so they attack 2 of MPS's districts. District 1 (D1) is attacked with 150, and D2 with 166. D1 and D2 have the exact same reinforcement time. Let's say for the sake of argument that the two battles queue up at the exact same time, and that both are Cargo Hubs.
MPS see that they can't defend both at the same time. Here's what they do. We're going to assume that the FIRST battle on D2 lasts just as long as the battle on D1.
MPS fight D1 on the first battle. Their gear and skill allows them to win handily. D1 locks by the new defense rules.
Meanwhile they don't show up to D2 for the first battle. It takes just as long. IEL have 150 clones by the end.
The second fight for D2 initiates. IEL and MPS fight, MPS again win handily. The district locks due to the new defense rules.
If IEL reattack IMMEDIATELY on both districts, this will be the state of both districts when those attacks happen:
D1 = full on clones | generates 160 between two days
D2 = 450 - 150 (first defense no show) - 100 (second defense win) + 80 (second day's reinforcement) = 280
So now MPS defend D2 in the first attack and noshow on D1. Same outcomes, IEL reattacks:
D1 = 280 by the same math as D2 the last time
D2 = 280 - 100 (win first defense) + 160 (two days of reinforcement) = 340 !!!!!
So basically a core team with a gear advantage can now defend DOUBLE the districts in the same hour of reinforcement. Now there are some things to be said about adjacent hours, but in general keep in mind that this is costing IEL a lot of clones as well and morale isn't improving by facing the same team of 18mil+ SP players who you can't beat with tactics because of the gear difference.
Also keep in mind that IEL has to have tons of resources to do this: at least 6 districts because of some timer mechanics I discussed previously.
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I already dropped Fox a line about this other thing, but so that we can all chew on it together:
You can't beat competitive teams with 100 clones in a PC match, simply from experience. I'm afraid that the 80 clone number was skewed by corps who fought in the first week or so of PC for 1 or two matches and then stopped attacking as their clone pack assaults failed.
If that's the case, the 100 clones per clone pack number is too low in general. Leaving it at this number will make corps wishing to clone pack go very selectively for those organizations that can't sport strong A-teams that have a high chance of killing your 100 clones before MCC victory is anything like possible. That is to say, they'll strangle new corps in the crib.
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Ani had something to say about the cost-benefit analysis of holding a district earlier, and I'd like to emphasize some commentary on a line from the dev blog:
Dev blog wrote:Basically it means you guys are bad at math, calculating ROI, estimating risk, those kind of things... OR what it means is you just want to have fun... in a video game... Who knew?
I know that ROFL has poured over the cost-benefit analysis of districts extensively. Running a corp in PC is kinda more like running a government than a corporation. Your goal is not to make money, it's to provide a service and also (as quoted) to have fun. Most people will fight until the coffers run dry because what else is there to DO with the ISK?
There's also a very sticky point to the mathematics, and that's the opportunity cost of fighting for a district. Fighting over a district will, in general, cost you 1 mil ISK per person per battle in gear. We'll ignore the opportunity cost of the clones you use in the battle, as that will even make it WORSE.
Fighting a PC battle takes about an hour: at LEAST 30 minutes of prep time (almost definitely more), and about 25 minutes of fighting.
In pub matches you can make about 750k/man-hr. This ISK is virtually guaranteed. For one PC battle then it's 12 million you could have been making in pubs with that 16 man team. (750*16*1)
Fighting a PC battle for clones at 50% win ratio (assuming binomial distribution, which we haven't been able to test against) is like this. Gear loss is 16mil no matter what. 50% of the time you get clone ISK back. I'll use the new clone number and approximate 250 destroyed clones.
.5(150*250) - 16000 = 2750k = 2.75mil
Keep in mind that 16million is lowballing horribly on gear loss. It's much higher with tanks and the current price of gear.
So you could either get a guaranteed 12 million ISK playing for an hour with those 16 people in pubs, or you could get an EXPECTED 2.75mil ISK in a PC match. That expectation is a horrible number to use, too, because it ignores so many other factors involved with PC matches. Risky factors.
Going into PC is an opportunity loss of ISK unless you don't get attacked, AKA don't fight, AKA don't have fun. |