So, I made a post the other day about the AUR refund. To put things out in the open, I would be one of those who receives millions of AUR if there's a refund. With that caveat admitting my bias out of the way, I still think there is a genuine case for CCP to do the refund.

The original plan was to refund most AUR items at their current AUR values. However, this plan was cancelled at the last moment, because some of us would receive millions of AUR. The stated concern, by CCP Eterne, was that "we realized this would give a hugely unfair advantage to these people". This as a reason, however, does not fly for three reasons:
1. It seems to entail that Dust 514 is "pay to win"
2. This "huge advantage" is available to anyone with deep outside-eve pockets (should we implement an AUR cap?)
3. This "huge advantage" is available to any rich EVE players, once the economies are merged

So it's not clear to me that it is a huge advantage, and if it is, then it's a problem for other reasons. Furthermore, CCP should keep in mind what people will be likely to spend their AUR on. I'm sure they have data on AUR spending habits, and I imagine a great deal of this AUR will go directly into boosters. In terms of advantage, this cannot be described as "huge". Perhaps on its own this would give a slight reason to cancel a refund, but it does not seem to me to be a particularly strong reason at all. Weighed against the considerations in favour of a refund, I do not think it is strong enough.

Now, there is one important reason why CCP may wish to not reimburse the AUR -- and that is, that it may affect their revenue. I think that is a legitimate concern, as that is what fuels Dust 514 development. However, I actually think it may possibly be *worse* for CCP's revenue to not reimburse the AUR now. Worse, that is, once these BPO's are able to be sold on the ISK market. It sounds like there are a lot of these BPO's spread among the closed beta players. Most likely thousands of each BPO, or of each of the most expensive ones. Once the market opens up, players will sell these BPO's, likely at significantly less than their converted ISK value, due to the large number available and likely demand. Players will buy these BPO's with ISK instead of AUR, and CCP loses revenue from those players who would have purchased those BPO's with AUR instead. If CCP reimburses the AUR instead, then a number of people such as myself will use that AUR on boosters I wouldn't have purchased anyway, or on other items I wouldn't have purchased anyway (I don't have outside-eve deep pockets). And some of that AUR will sit dormant, unspent. That is, CCP will lose some revenue, but not the full value of the AUR in revenue. On the other hand, without a refund, they will lose some revenue from ISK sold BPO's. Of course, not everyone who purchases a BPO with ISK would have bought that with AUR instead, but the existence of these BPO's will represent a loss of revenue.

Of course, there's lots of assumptions here. I, however, do not think that CCP's revenue will be obviously *worse* if they reimburse the AUR. I do think it could possibly be higher. At the very least, I think it is worth considering the possibility that a reimbursement might be their best option (or at least neutral) from an economic perspective.

And finally, there's the innocent victims of this change -- those people who didn't take advantage of the early beta lower prices, who have bought suits or militia bpo's on the basis of particular fits, and now want to skill into something different with the new Uprising skills. Or those who's suits are no longer available without investing significant SP's. These people are a strong case in favour of AUR refund, particularly since some appear to be claiming to not purchase any more AUR, or at least not for the moment. Weighed against the not-so-huge advantage, and the economic considerations, I think this last point tells strongly in favour of a refund.