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GOLD LEAD3R
Seituoda Taskforce Command
Caldari State
22
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Posted - 2012.09.23 01:01:00 -
[1] - Quote
Corvus Dorn1 wrote:Sleepy Zan wrote:[quote=4447] *alien version of facepalm*  Facesuctionpad  I know this is supposed to be about the beta, but i love reading topics like these, please (whoever it was) expand on why you think its a simulation 
It wasn't me, but I'll give my two cents. It comes down to what we think will happen in the future, and statistics. WARNING: this is a long post, but kind of trippy...
We have simulations today. Video games, simulation programs to simulate the forming of the universe, etc. These sims are getting more lifelike, and it won't be too terribly long before they're exactly like real life. What you'll be able to do on the computer will be photo realistic. I think most of us can agree on that.
Secondly, if you asked futurists and professionals at the cutting edge of technology, most of them would agree that the ideas in the Matrix will eventually happen. We'll be able to plug ourselves into a "computer" and interact with a virtual world that will be indistinguishable from reality. You'll be able to touch, smell, hear, etc. It will be an exact replica of reality.
Lastly, artificial intelligence. Most people assume (as do I) that eventually we'll get to a place where interacting with an artificial mind will be like interacting with an organic mind. Even if it's programmed or learned, we will eventually get to that place (assuming we don't blow ourselves up beforehand). |
GOLD LEAD3R
Seituoda Taskforce Command
Caldari State
22
|
Posted - 2012.09.23 01:02:00 -
[2] - Quote
Let's say 50 years from now all of this will be possible (maybe it'll be 100, or maybe it'll be 25, but let's just say it's 50). Let's also estimate that there will be 9 billion people on the planet. A fairly conservative estimate. If we assume technology has progressed that far, then it wouldn't be crazy to think that most people will have access to it, but again, I'll go conservative. I'll assume only 1 in 3 people will have access to a simulation or will be able to create their own. That gives us 3 billion people who will have a simulation to run around in.
But, not all of the sims will accurately reflect reality, or course. Throwing out another lowball number, we'll pretend that only 10% of those sims will reflect reality. Now we're at 300 million.
But wait, these simulations are happening 50 years in the future, not in the early 21st century like where we are. But it's safe to assume that there will be interest in seeing how people lived in the early 21st century- the moment in time where nanotechnology, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, information technology, etc, was exploding and starting to take off. Maybe 0.1%of the sims we have left wil be of the early 21st century. Again, a pretty small number. That gives us 300,000 simulations.
300,000 simulations of life as we know it right now. Indistinguishable. If you lived through the early 21st century and was around at a ripe old age when the simulation of the early 21st century was invented, you could plug in and marvel at how it's exactly as you remember it. Of course, all the "people" in the sim would think it's the early 21st century.
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GOLD LEAD3R
Seituoda Taskforce Command
Caldari State
22
|
Posted - 2012.09.23 01:03:00 -
[3] - Quote
But let's cut that number down even further. Let's just say that I made a huge math error, and the numbers are only 1% as high as I'm making them out to be. That gives us 3,000. 3,000 sims that replicate what the early 21st century was, with NPC's walking around going about their daily lives thinking it really was the early 21st century.
Taking all of that into account, we now have 3,000 replicas of the early 21st century, and the 1 real 21st century they're all based off of. Anyone experiencing a 21st century reality wouldn't know if it was the real thing or a sim, unless you're the one who created it/entered into it, which gives us 3,001 21st century "realities" that would all be the same.
And that means that if you are experiencing a 21st century reality, because you will never be able to tell with 100% certainty if it's real or a sim, your chances are 1 in 3,001 that what you are experiencing is the actual early 21st century.
So you've gotta ask yourself one question: do I feel lucky? Well, do ya, punk? |
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