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Arkena Wyrnspire
Fatal Absolution
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Posted - 2015.05.03 12:39:00 -
[1] - Quote
See title.
How much ISK, in millions, do you think an APEX BPO will go for in player trading once they become tradeable?
I've run some calculations but I'm curious to see what people think.
Supreme Forum Warrior
Gallente Guide
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Arkena Wyrnspire
Fatal Absolution
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23695
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Posted - 2015.05.03 13:06:00 -
[2] - Quote
Elpedo Hughes wrote:shaman oga wrote:10 basic cost + time needed= more than 50kk I agree although I sold mine for 30mill as just wanted my money back lol.
"I sold mine"
They aren't tradeable yet. 
Supreme Forum Warrior
Gallente Guide
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Arkena Wyrnspire
Fatal Absolution
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23695
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Posted - 2015.05.03 13:11:00 -
[3] - Quote
Bright Steel wrote:
Amarr or cal
That's tricky because for a solo player they are grinding 150 LP at a time for a lose or you need to q-synch for a win which requires more effort. The solo is about 10 times less LP and a high likely hood of loosing money in losing battles...
Thus the 160-300 million
I'm going to go ahead and shoot this one down. The market isn't going to accommodate people acquiring these items in the worst, most inefficient and time consuming way possible.
The minimum LP earned is 195, even for a loss at standings level 0. Under your suggested conditions, where the opportunity cost is 200k per match, the number of matches taken to grind this much LP at 100% loss rate standings level 0 is 513. That means the opportunity cost total is about 103 mil, plus the 10 mil base purchase price. 300 million, therefore, is horrendously overpriced.
There are Q-sync groups for both Amarr and Caldari who win consistently (or at least claim to) as well. These people are certainly not rank 0 and even if you manage only a 25% win rate you're looking at a cost roughly maxing out at 60 mil.
Thanks for your contribution, though. 
Supreme Forum Warrior
Gallente Guide
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Arkena Wyrnspire
Fatal Absolution
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23696
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Posted - 2015.05.03 14:20:00 -
[4] - Quote
Bright Steel wrote:
Sorry for they off numbers but the principle stands.
That's why I said it was tricky, who is going to sell them?
If I had to grind for it solo I will want a premium for it or I won't sell.
Given I don't actually see it going for 100 mill or more, but I think this "cost to aquire" will factor into the price. In the end price is the result of supply and demand and amarr and cal will most likely be lower in supply and thus higher in price and this will be compounded by the difficulty to win battles for them.
Honestly if min and gal settled in at, let's say 25 million, then I see amarr and cal going for about 35 or 40...
The point is that you may want a premium for it, having ground for it solo, but if there are people doing it so vastly more efficiently than you, nobody is going to want to buy from you. You may want 100 mil from it, but if some hardcore Q-syncers are selling at half your price, people aren't going to be buying from you if you insist on that much. Demand isn't likely to be massively high anyway, and at those prices people are going to want to look around for a good seller.
As for the rest, though - mostly agreed. Am/Cal are going to be higher priced than Min/Gal. Not so much that Am/Cal go for 10x the price, though.
Anyway, I don't think prices will drop so drastically as to reach something as low as 25 mil either. I'll publish a spreadsheet shortly, but the minimum opportunity cost from a standings level 10 player with a 100% win rate isn't likely to go that low.
Supreme Forum Warrior
Gallente Guide
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Arkena Wyrnspire
Fatal Absolution
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23697
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Posted - 2015.05.03 14:56:00 -
[5] - Quote
MINA Longstrike wrote:I'd value them anywhere between 50m to ~ 90m.
Logistics on the higher end (because bandwidth), Amarr sentinel very close to the top (Honestly one of the *BEST* apex suits out there), assaults on the upper tier and descending values after that
Why would you value according to what APEX they are when the costs for all of them are the same and most people are just going to ask 'What APEX do you want' and then buy it for the express purpose of selling?
Supreme Forum Warrior
Gallente Guide
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Arkena Wyrnspire
Fatal Absolution
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23700
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Posted - 2015.05.03 15:22:00 -
[6] - Quote
Bright Steel wrote:
Also could consider the arum value of these suits in conjunction with the LP value. 55k arum per suite is a lot... Do you think that will influence the price?
Not really.
The thing is that there's probably going to be a pretty decent supply of these relative to the number of buyers. Not everyone can afford to throw around lots of ISK without caring whether they got a good deal or not, so most folks are going to be looking for a reasonable price. If the FW people can afford to sell cheaper and are actually selling cheaper, it doesn't matter whether it's more expensive to get them with AUR or not - people will buy the FW versions, not the AUR ones.
Think about it. There are two ways to make something. One costs more than the other, but both can meet demand. Which way are people going to use?
Supreme Forum Warrior
Gallente Guide
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Arkena Wyrnspire
Fatal Absolution
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Posted - 2015.05.03 15:28:00 -
[7] - Quote
Bright Steel wrote:You almost make me think that you have thought this through 
Well, at least up until the point where I realise that most people are mouthbreathers who will end up buying and selling at completely nonsensical prices. At least I'll stand to profit in the end. Provided there isn't a ridiculous trade tax.
Supreme Forum Warrior
Gallente Guide
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