DUST Search - Theoretically Win FW 50% Of Time

Clone D wrote:

MINA Longstrike wrote:

Clone D wrote:

MINA Longstrike wrote:

You're stupid aren't you? Or you didn't get through math or probability in grade 7.

I have displayed the probability above. You have displayed nothing of quantitative significance.

No, you have actually brought nothing quantative to the table. Nothing you've said is substantiated. I could go back to the discussions about mu matchmaking and reference that stuff.

Your numbers are pulled out of nowhere. If you won't accept what the majority of people who do understand this are telling you there's no point in continuing this conversation.

There is information conformity and normative conformity. You have not convinced me of anything by the "information" that you have shared. I will not accept what the majority of people think, because the majority of people are usually not thinking clearly.

I don't have the actual data on CCPs servers, so I can't tell you what percentage of the time each faction wins, and therefore I can't investigate the behaviors that contribute to the statistical evidence, so we have to work with theory here. The theory has been stated above, and we can drill into it further if you need to.


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MINA Longstrike Kirjuun Heiian 1710	Posted - 2014.12.04 05:27:00 - [1] - Quote Clone D wrote: Statistically, shouldn't I be assigned to the team that will win FW 50% of the time? While I have finished in the top 3 every FW battle, the teams that I have been assigned to have lost 19 out of 20 battles. That defies the statistical chance that I should be assigned to the winning team and I suspect something is very fishy about the way we are placed on teams. @Devs, can you provide some transparency on the exact details of how we are assigned to teams during match making. I need this information in order to alter how I am placed on teams, as your algorithm almost always assigns me to the losing FW team. @FW teams that I have been assigned to, I hate you. You suck. You suck. Do something useful. Stop waiting out thte match in the redline and go capture an objective. Jeez Louise. There isn't any matchmaking for faction warfare, it literally grabs the first 16 people (preferring big squads to unsquadded) and throws them into a match. Hnolai ki tuul, ti sei oni a tiu. Kirjuun Heiian. I have a few alts.
MINA Longstrike Kirjuun Heiian 1711	Posted - 2014.12.04 05:38:00 - [2] - Quote Clone D wrote: It is a 50% probability. 50% my team will be built in such a way that they have an advantage. 50% the opposing team will be built in such a way that they have an advantage. No, it isn't a 50% probability. 'Matchmaking' in faction warfare is not set up to generate matches where people have roughly a 50% chance of winning or losing as there is no 'true matchmaking' for faction warfare. Also, all the logical fallacies, especially ones like gamblers fallacy and prettymuch any fallacy you can think of regarding math and probability. Hnolai ki tuul, ti sei oni a tiu. Kirjuun Heiian. I have a few alts.
MINA Longstrike Kirjuun Heiian 1711	Posted - 2014.12.04 05:57:00 - [3] - Quote ^You only perceive it to be this way because you do not understand the way that faction warfare works. There is no equal chance that your team will have organized squads. In fact if you are running solo it is LESS likely that your team will have organized squads and MORE likely that you'll get randoms. Lets use what we know to be true. 1) You have already picked your side for faction warfare 2) There is no 'true' matchmaking, it is first come first serve aside from where it ineracts with 3) Faction warfare prefers to grab squads as opposed to individuals. So building a theoretical pool of players for Cal vs Gal, and starting out at 'zero' time. 1) First check Gal queue: 8 unsquadded players Cal queue: 3 unsquadded. Result : Not enough to generate match 2)Second check 1 second later Gal queue: 6man squad enters queue, 8 unsquadded players Cal queue: 1x 5man enters queue, 3 more unsquadded. Result: Still not enough to generate match. 3)Third check 1 second later Gal queue: +1 6man and +1 4man squads enter queue, bringing us to 16 squadded (6, 6, 4) and 8 unsquadded Cal Queue: 5man squad + 3 unsquadded. Result: Still not enough to generate match. 4)Fourth check 1 second later Gal : More squads enter queue bringing it to 6 6 6 6 4 & 8 unsquadded Cal: 6 man + 5man enter queue alongside the existing 5 man, 3 unsquadded still in queue. Result: Takes the full caldari and gallente squads and matches them up based on order of entry. 6 6 & 8 unsquadded still in gallente, 3 unsquadded still in caldari. more people still sitting in queue. Etc etc etc etc. Hnolai ki tuul, ti sei oni a tiu. Kirjuun Heiian. I have a few alts.
MINA Longstrike Kirjuun Heiian 1712	Posted - 2014.12.04 06:02:00 - [4] - Quote ^Extrapolate from what other people have told you. Faction warfare prefers squads. There is no checks for 'balance' in its 'matchmaking'. Mu cannot be used to balance as you have already determined which team you want to play for. You do not have a 50:50 chance of winning a faction warfare chance ever - EVEN IF IT WAS 16 unsquadded vs 16 unsquadded as mu cannot be used to 'balance' each team, if you have 16 badasses who decide to solo for gallente and 16 fresh off the boat Mexican **ing cactuses queue up for gallente it won't 'balance' the teams because they have already decided which sides they play for. Currently the best way to win is to grab up 15 friends, organize them into squads, get them on voice comms and exploit the currently broken by design system. Hnolai ki tuul, ti sei oni a tiu. Kirjuun Heiian.** I have a few alts.
MINA Longstrike Kirjuun Heiian 1712	Posted - 2014.12.04 06:08:00 - [5] - Quote Clone D wrote: MINA Longstrike wrote: ^Extrapolate from what other people have told you. Faction warfare prefers squads. There is no checks for 'balance' in its 'matchmaking'. Mu cannot be used to balance as you have already determined which team you want to play for. You do not have a 50:50 chance of winning a faction warfare chance ever. Currently the best way to win is to grab up 15 friends, organize them into squads, get them on voice comms and exploit the currently broken by design system. There is an equal chance that someone on either side is doing this ^^^^^^^^ No, there isn't. That is a logical fallacy. Even if there was it grabs the first people who were in the queue, so you could have 10 million unsquadded badasses queue up for the caldari behind the 16 cacti and it would still be the unsquadded cacti playing the unsquadded gallente badasses. Essentially by your logic you are attributing that there is a 50/50 chance that ANYTHING will or wont happen, when that is not the case at all. Hnolai ki tuul, ti sei oni a tiu. Kirjuun Heiian. I have a few alts.
MINA Longstrike Kirjuun Heiian 1712	Posted - 2014.12.04 06:19:00 - [6] - Quote You're stupid aren't you? Or you didn't get through math or probability in grade 7. Hnolai ki tuul, ti sei oni a tiu. Kirjuun Heiian. I have a few alts.
MINA Longstrike Kirjuun Heiian 1712	Posted - 2014.12.04 06:31:00 - [7] - Quote Clone D wrote: MINA Longstrike wrote: You're stupid aren't you? Or you didn't get through math or probability in grade 7. I have displayed the probability above. You have displayed nothing of quantitative significance. No, you have actually brought nothing quantative to the table. Nothing you've said is substantiated. I could go back to the discussions about mu matchmaking and reference that stuff. Your numbers are pulled out of nowhere. If you won't accept what the majority of people who do understand this are telling you there's no point in continuing this conversation. Hnolai ki tuul, ti sei oni a tiu. Kirjuun Heiian. I have a few alts.
MINA Longstrike Kirjuun Heiian 1712	Posted - 2014.12.04 06:44:00 - [8] - Quote Clone D wrote: MINA Longstrike wrote: Clone D wrote: MINA Longstrike wrote: You're stupid aren't you? Or you didn't get through math or probability in grade 7. I have displayed the probability above. You have displayed nothing of quantitative significance. No, you have actually brought nothing quantative to the table. Nothing you've said is substantiated. I could go back to the discussions about mu matchmaking and reference that stuff. Your numbers are pulled out of nowhere. If you won't accept what the majority of people who do understand this are telling you there's no point in continuing this conversation. There is information conformity and normative conformity. You have not convinced me of anything by the "information" that you have shared. I will not accept what the majority of people think, because the majority of people are usually not thinking clearly. I don't have the actual data on CCPs servers, so I can't tell you what percentage of the time each faction wins, and therefore I can't investigate the behaviors that contribute to the statistical evidence, so we have to work with theory here. The theory has been stated above, and we can drill into it further if you need to. Feel free to persist in being wrong if you want to. Normally people who come up with a hypothesis on how something works and see it demonstrated to be wrong re-evaluate their hypothesis. Facts are your 'belief' on how it should work isn't matching the data you've witnessed. Your belief is empirically wrong. Hnolai ki tuul, ti sei oni a tiu. Kirjuun Heiian. I have a few alts.
MINA Longstrike Kirjuun Heiian 1712	Posted - 2014.12.04 06:49:00 - [9] - Quote Clone D wrote: Ghosts Chance wrote: they do not have the same chance because YOU BEING THERE lowers the chancee of your team being organised becuas eyour chosing to be disorganised lowering your teams odds of sucess. this game isnt bassed on luck its bassed in skill. your actions directly contribute to winning or losing and therefore yoru actions determin weather you win or lose... your losing becuase your assuming other people will carry you, but by having to carry you your team has a higher chance of losing. its not 50% it would onlly be 50% if EVERY action in the game was determined by a coin flip, and even then deviation would occur becuase there is no such thing as random. You're not using the information provided. I already said that I'm finishing top 3. I am a key contributor to the team. I said 15/16 because that removes me from the equation. Take me away and take away one player from the other team, and you have an equal chance of either team having organized squads. No, you don't. But lets follow this trail of stupidity to its end. What makes you believe that you have an equal chance of either team having organized squads? Remember to show the reasons for why you believe this. Hnolai ki tuul, ti sei oni a tiu. Kirjuun Heiian. I have a few alts.
MINA Longstrike Kirjuun Heiian 1712	Posted - 2014.12.04 06:52:00 - [10] - Quote Clone D wrote: Ghosts Chance wrote: Clone D wrote: Ghosts Chance wrote: bionary options are NEVER 50/50 not even a coin flip due to the entropy principal functions may draw close to an asymptote, and we use the normal line as a description of the value that the function is approaching. No, it's not exactly 50/50, but I don't have the data to be more precise. It is good enough to say that it is theoretically close to 50/50. no you do not have a 50% chance of dieing tommorow just because the only two options are live and die, therefore you dont have a 50% chance of winning your next match based on the same math. you really arnt understanding the core reason why your math is broken... Show me by means of syllogism or mathematical proof where my logic is broken. Until then, I will assume that it is fine. Oh, we have a misunderstanding of the burden of proof here. It's up to you to provide reasonable grounds for belief that your information is correct before we have to attempt to disprove it. No one gets to say "THERE'S A TEACUP ORBITING THE SUN RIGHT NOW, PROVE ME WRONG **ERS! OH WAIT YOU CANT" because they need to provide reasonable grounds to others for them to believe that there might actually be a teacup orbiting the sun. You're not debating in good faith and are instead descending to even lower and lower depths of insane troll 'logic'. Hnolai ki tuul, ti sei oni a tiu. Kirjuun Heiian.** I have a few alts.

MINA Longstrike Kirjuun Heiian 1712	Posted - 2014.12.04 06:54:00 - [11] - Quote Clone D wrote: That's why I would like complete transparency on how the FW team building algorithm works from the DEVS. If I had that, then I could better model the situation and develop more informed decisions. As far as I know, your responses are mere speculation. You have been referenced as to where you can find more information: The old discussions about MU matchmaking. There were pages of it in which many people lobbied to keep matchmaking out of faction warfare, and responses from devs about how faction warfare would be set up to prefer squads instead of individuals when given the choice. Hnolai ki tuul, ti sei oni a tiu. Kirjuun Heiian. I have a few alts.
MINA Longstrike Kirjuun Heiian 1712	Posted - 2014.12.04 06:57:00 - [12] - Quote Clone D wrote: I couldn't care less what you believe. If you look at my post, it says "@Devs". I want a description of their algorithm from them. I really don't care what your comprehension level is. "waaah only devs can tell me I'm wrong, despite the collective observations of many others and myself!". Revising 'stupid' to 'incredibly **ing dumb' with demonstrably zero understanding of probability. As I asked earlier, please provide reasons for why you think there's a 50/50 chance for either team to have organized squads or not. Hnolai ki tuul, ti sei oni a tiu. Kirjuun Heiian.** I have a few alts.
MINA Longstrike Kirjuun Heiian 1712	Posted - 2014.12.04 06:58:00 - [13] - Quote Viktor Hadah Jr wrote: Thaddeus Reynolds wrote: Viktor Hadah Jr wrote: On a side note, people with rank 10 in there faction should get unlimited consequence free team killing. "BLAM Stop Being terrible blueberries!" ...I both like and dislike this idea XD I'll shoot the stupid out of them. Standing 10 would quickly be changed to 'license to troll', which is a terrible thing to hand to people. Hnolai ki tuul, ti sei oni a tiu. Kirjuun Heiian. I have a few alts.
MINA Longstrike Kirjuun Heiian 1720	Posted - 2014.12.04 07:10:00 - [14] - Quote ^Do not misrepresent my position to try and further your point. You are not accounting for enough variables, or the factors that people have told you about. If you are unsquadded it does not select an unsquadded individual for the other side to 'balance' things out, so your '15/16' for the other side is outright wrong. You are making a metric ton of errors, assumptions and fallacies. Hnolai ki tuul, ti sei oni a tiu. Kirjuun Heiian. I have a few alts.
MINA Longstrike Kirjuun Heiian 1720	Posted - 2014.12.04 07:26:00 - [15] - Quote Arkena and I do not agree often, but holy **ing Christ are you wrong. The reason we're doing so right now is because of what ghosts chance has said. Math is a universal language because there is one correct way to do it, if you aren't getting the results you think you should be its because something has gone wrong where we're asking you to show your work. Hnolai ki tuul, ti sei oni a tiu. Kirjuun Heiian.** I have a few alts.
MINA Longstrike Kirjuun Heiian 1722	Posted - 2014.12.04 07:35:00 - [16] - Quote "I am going to persist in making huge errors of logic, even when others have explained to my why they are errors in logic, and my results being demonstrably incorrect even to my own observations". Hnolai ki tuul, ti sei oni a tiu. Kirjuun Heiian. I have a few alts.
MINA Longstrike Kirjuun Heiian 1723	Posted - 2014.12.04 08:17:00 - [17] - Quote ^statistics can represent it, provided you're not using a flawed premise and flawed numbers from the start Hnolai ki tuul, ti sei oni a tiu. Kirjuun Heiian. I have a few alts.
MINA Longstrike Kirjuun Heiian 1723	Posted - 2014.12.04 08:56:00 - [18] - Quote The idea that 50% of matches should be won or lost is starting from a biased perspective. Because it didn't assume the clause of [EVERYTHING ELSE BEING EQUAL]. You have lost 19 matches out of the twenty you played. Something must not be equal, we have demonstrated what isn't equal and that is the fact that there is no matchmaking, and [stated by a dev] there is a preference for squads to get chosen over individuals. Hnolai ki tuul, ti sei oni a tiu. Kirjuun Heiian. I have a few alts.