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Ghosts Chance
Inf4m0us
2384
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Posted - 2014.12.04 04:24:00 -
[1] - Quote
first yyour odds are only 50% if its a damn coin flip, but its not its a game where you have to doo something to win so nope no 50% odds for you.
there is NO matchmaking in faction warfare, NONE, its bring a whole team with you or lose.
speaking of wich your losing becuase your not bringing at the very least a full squad, theres usually on in squad finder to join for any givin faction.
Minmatar is Winmatar
Creed of the Minja - "I'm a leaf on the wind"
I am Chances Ghost
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Ghosts Chance
Inf4m0us
2384
|
Posted - 2014.12.04 04:31:00 -
[2] - Quote
Clone D wrote:Ghosts Chance wrote:first yyour odds are only 50% if its a damn coin flip, but its not its a game where you have to doo something to win so nope no 50% odds for you.
there is NO matchmaking in faction warfare, NONE, its bring a whole team with you or lose.
speaking of wich your losing becuase your not bringing at the very least a full squad, theres usually on in squad finder to join for any givin faction.
your losing because the other team is que sinqing and your running around solo with an inability to do math or realise the enamy team always seems to have 12 of the same people on it every game. If the enemy team is queue synching, then shouldn't matchmaking put squads of equal sizes on opposite teams? If squads are divvied out equally per team, then it essentially becomes a coin flip with a 50% chance of being assigned to the team with the advantage. If queue synched squads end up on the same team and the opposing team doesn't have any squads, isn't that a huge flaw with match making? I want the algorithm on how match making is handled so that I can do everything in my power to change my odds of ending up on the losing team. Thanks.
FACTION WARFARE DOES NOT HAVE MATCHMAKING
read
Minmatar is Winmatar
Creed of the Minja - "I'm a leaf on the wind"
I am Chances Ghost
|
Ghosts Chance
Inf4m0us
2384
|
Posted - 2014.12.04 04:44:00 -
[3] - Quote
Clone D wrote:Ghosts Chance wrote:
FACTION WARFARE DOES NOT HAVE MATCHMAKING
read
You are wrong because two teams end up playing each other comprised of assorted individuals and squads. That implies some match making process being used to build the teams. Whether or not the algorithm places agents based on some calculated weight is another question. If there is no rhym or reason to the agent placement within a team, then why is my FW experience many standard deviations away from the statistical norm, which would suggest about a 50% success rate? I want to know how the teams are constructed, weighted or not.
a 50% sucess rate only applys to a RANDOM outcome.
as if win and lose were binary.
winning isnt random and therefore you wont win 50% of the time. statistical norms only function in that manner when the outcome is randomly decided.
setup one build amaar team from first 16 people in line...
squad 3 people
solo
solo
solo
squad 6 people
squad 5 people (error too many people on team A )
-removes squad 5 people
solo
solo
solo
solo
there thats how it builds a frigging team. the ONLY thing it conciiders is weather or not the team has exactly 16 people iin it.
if it has less than 16 then it add the next person (or squad) in line
if it has more than 16 people then it removes the last thing it added
if it has exactly 16 peopel then it starts the match
FW is for organised teams. your loosing more than 50% of the time becuas your not bringing your own organised team.
Minmatar is Winmatar
Creed of the Minja - "I'm a leaf on the wind"
I am Chances Ghost
|
Ghosts Chance
Inf4m0us
2385
|
Posted - 2014.12.04 04:51:00 -
[4] - Quote
Clone D wrote:Ghosts Chance wrote:Clone D wrote:Ghosts Chance wrote:
FACTION WARFARE DOES NOT HAVE MATCHMAKING
read
You are wrong because two teams end up playing each other comprised of assorted individuals and squads. That implies some match making process being used to build the teams. Whether or not the algorithm places agents based on some calculated weight is another question. If there is no rhym or reason to the agent placement within a team, then why is my FW experience many standard deviations away from the statistical norm, which would suggest about a 50% success rate? I want to know how the teams are constructed, weighted or not. a 50% sucess rate only applys to a RANDOM outcome. as if win and lose were binary. winning isnt random and therefore you wont win 50% of the time. statistical norms only function in that manner when the outcome is randomly decided. setup one build amaar team from first 16 people in line... squad 3 people solo solo solo squad 6 people squad 5 people (error too many people on team A ) -removes squad 5 people solo solo solo solo there thats how it builds a frigging team. the ONLY thing it conciiders is weather or not the team has exactly 16 people iin it. if it has less than 16 then it add the next person (or squad) in line if it has more than 16 people then it removes the last thing it added if it has exactly 16 peopel then it starts the match FW is for organised teams. your loosing more than 50% of the time becuas your not bringing your own organised team. You seem a little bit emotional in your response. It is a 50% probability. 50% my team will be built in such a way that they have an advantage. 50% the opposing team will be built in such a way that they have an advantage.
nope
where are you getting 50% from? becuase from my perspective
5% chance of you buildinng your team in a way that gives you an advantage
95% chance of me building MY team in a way that gives me an advantage
i noow have a 95% chance to win
in faction war YOU BUILD YOUR OWN TEAM, sure you can rely on random to do it, but the enamy team doesnt as they can get 16 people into the same game at will and all be communicating with each other.
its not random in the slightest, i can pick and choose all 16 members of my team if i wish, meaning im building that dvantage into my team on purpose whereas your waiting for that advantagee to be randomly handed to you, lowing your odds of winning below 50%
IT IS NOT RANDOM!
you lose becuasse im hand picking my entire team and you are choseing to take the first 15 other people that want to play
Minmatar is Winmatar
Creed of the Minja - "I'm a leaf on the wind"
I am Chances Ghost
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Ghosts Chance
Inf4m0us
2386
|
Posted - 2014.12.04 06:13:00 -
[5] - Quote
Clone D wrote:
There is an equal chance that the team that I will be assigned to has organized squads, as the opposing team having organized squads.
It is random and by chance I should at least end up on a team with the advantage 50% of the time. That is not happening.
THERE IS NOT AN EQUAL CHANCE
by not bringing your own team and going tolo into FW you lower the chance of your team being organised making it no longer equal.
you CHOSE weather or not your bringing organised squad, it isnt random its literally your choice
by your account of how probability works nobody in the game should have a win/loss ratio over 1/1 but thats not true we have people with winn lose ratios of over 1 and well under 1
now if you average EVERY player on BOTH teams then the average is 1, but if you only average one team (say amaar fac war only) then the math no longer works.
bionary desisions like that dont work.
look at this this way, tommorow one of two things could happen to you, you could either live through the day, or die before the day is done.
that DOES NOT mean you have a 50% chance of dieing tommorow.
MATH DOES NOT WORK LIKE THAT
Minmatar is Winmatar
Creed of the Minja - "I'm a leaf on the wind"
I am Chances Ghost
|
Ghosts Chance
Inf4m0us
2386
|
Posted - 2014.12.04 06:35:00 -
[6] - Quote
Clone D wrote:Ghosts Chance wrote:Clone D wrote:
There is an equal chance that the team that I will be assigned to has organized squads, as the opposing team having organized squads.
It is random and by chance I should at least end up on a team with the advantage 50% of the time. That is not happening.
THERE IS NOT AN EQUAL CHANCE by not bringing your own team and going tolo into FW you lower the chance of your team being organised making it no longer equal. you CHOSE weather or not your bringing organised squad, it isnt random its literally your choice by your account of how probability works nobody in the game should have a win/loss ratio over 1/1 but thats not true we have people with winn lose ratios of over 1 and well under 1 now if you average EVERY player on BOTH teams then the average is 1, but if you only average one team (say amaar fac war only) then the math no longer works. bionary desisions like that dont work. look at this this way, tommorow one of two things could happen to you, you could either live through the day, or die before the day is done. that DOES NOT mean you have a 50% chance of dieing tommorow. MATH DOES NOT WORK LIKE THAT It is guaranteed that 1 team WILL win and 1 team WILL lose. I will be on ONE of the TWO teams and therefore have a 50% chance of being assigned to the WINNING team. It is not guaranteed that I WILL live tomorrow or I WILL die tomorrow.
you do NOT have a 50% chance of being assigned to the winning team
that 50% number assumes ALL things are equal, and they arnt.
for instance, your not organising a squad and almost everyone elsee is, so technically your going to have a higher chance of being on the unorganised team simply by being unorganised.
thats not how statistics, probability and math work.
bionary options are NEVER 50/50 not even a coin flip due to the entropy principal
in rac war you have a guarenteed chance ofbeing on the same side of battle every game (amaar for instance) you CANNOT be placed on the minmatar side... therefore your dont have a 50% chance of being on the winning team, you have a 100% chance of being on the amaar team.
Minmatar is Winmatar
Creed of the Minja - "I'm a leaf on the wind"
I am Chances Ghost
|
Ghosts Chance
Inf4m0us
2386
|
Posted - 2014.12.04 06:41:00 -
[7] - Quote
Clone D wrote:Ghosts Chance wrote:Clone D wrote:Ghosts Chance wrote:Clone D wrote:
There is an equal chance that the team that I will be assigned to has organized squads, as the opposing team having organized squads.
It is random and by chance I should at least end up on a team with the advantage 50% of the time. That is not happening.
THERE IS NOT AN EQUAL CHANCE by not bringing your own team and going tolo into FW you lower the chance of your team being organised making it no longer equal. you CHOSE weather or not your bringing organised squad, it isnt random its literally your choice by your account of how probability works nobody in the game should have a win/loss ratio over 1/1 but thats not true we have people with winn lose ratios of over 1 and well under 1 now if you average EVERY player on BOTH teams then the average is 1, but if you only average one team (say amaar fac war only) then the math no longer works. bionary desisions like that dont work. look at this this way, tommorow one of two things could happen to you, you could either live through the day, or die before the day is done. that DOES NOT mean you have a 50% chance of dieing tommorow. MATH DOES NOT WORK LIKE THAT It is guaranteed that 1 team WILL win and 1 team WILL lose. I will be on ONE of the TWO teams and therefore have a 50% chance of being assigned to the WINNING team. It is not guaranteed that I WILL live tomorrow or I WILL die tomorrow. you do NOT have a 50% chance of being assigned to the winning team that 50% number assumes ALL things are equal, and they arnt. for instance, your not organising a squad and almost everyone elsee is, so technically your going to have a higher chance of being on the unorganised team simply by being unorganised. thats not how statistics, probability and math work. bionary options are NEVER 50/50 not even a coin flip due to the entropy principal This ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ If "almost everyone else is" organizing a squad, then the other 15 members on my team would basically be organized into squads, or at least have the same chance as 15 members on the opposing team being organized into squads.
they do not have the same chance because YOU BEING THERE lowers the chancee of your team being organised becuas eyour chosing to be disorganised lowering your teams odds of sucess.
this game isnt bassed on luck its bassed in skill. your actions directly contribute to winning or losing and therefore yoru actions determin weather you win or lose... your losing becuase your assuming other people will carry you, but by having to carry you your team has a higher chance of losing.
its not 50% it would onlly be 50% if EVERY action in the game was determined by a coin flip, and even then deviation would occur becuase there is no such thing as random.
Minmatar is Winmatar
Creed of the Minja - "I'm a leaf on the wind"
I am Chances Ghost
|
Ghosts Chance
Inf4m0us
2386
|
Posted - 2014.12.04 06:45:00 -
[8] - Quote
Clone D wrote:Ghosts Chance wrote:bionary options are NEVER 50/50 not even a coin flip due to the entropy principal functions may draw close to an asymptote, and we use the normal line as a description of the value that the function is approaching. No, it's not exactly 50/50, but I don't have the data to be more precise. It is good enough to say that it is theoretically close to 50/50.
no
you do not have a 50% chance of dieing tommorow just because the only two options are live and die, therefore you dont have a 50% chance of winning your next match based on the same math.
you really arnt understanding the core reason why your math is broken...
Minmatar is Winmatar
Creed of the Minja - "I'm a leaf on the wind"
I am Chances Ghost
|
Ghosts Chance
Inf4m0us
2386
|
Posted - 2014.12.04 06:52:00 -
[9] - Quote
Clone D wrote:Ghosts Chance wrote:they do not have the same chance because YOU BEING THERE lowers the chancee of your team being organised becuas eyour chosing to be disorganised lowering your teams odds of sucess.
this game isnt bassed on luck its bassed in skill. your actions directly contribute to winning or losing and therefore yoru actions determin weather you win or lose... your losing becuase your assuming other people will carry you, but by having to carry you your team has a higher chance of losing.
its not 50% it would onlly be 50% if EVERY action in the game was determined by a coin flip, and even then deviation would occur becuase there is no such thing as random. You're not using the information provided. I already said that I'm finishing top 3. I am a key contributor to the team. I said 15/16 because that removes me from the equation. Take me away and take away one player from the other team, and you have an equal chance of either team having organized squads.
you dont have an equal chance of having organised squads though... because you specifically lwoer that chance by not brining them.
ITS NOT RANDOM and therefore its not a 50/50 coin flip.
YOU specifically chosee how you want to modify that percentage, you chosee yto be unorganiseed and therefore you have a lower percentage of people on your team with the ppotential to be organised, couple that with the fact that once a person does chosee to be organised they automatically bring in 1-5 other organised people.
meaning its an exponential increase in odds of success for every 1 person that choses to be organised, so by having 1 person make that choice their odds of sucess increase exponentially, and by YOU choseing NOT to be organised your odds of sucess decrease exponentially.
you making that choice reemoves that randomness fromt he equation as it starts you off aat a negative value before all other factors are in place.
a rough math out of it in my head based on a linier equation reduses your chance of winning by aproximatly 5% just by you exsisting on a team
Minmatar is Winmatar
Creed of the Minja - "I'm a leaf on the wind"
I am Chances Ghost
|
Ghosts Chance
Inf4m0us
2390
|
Posted - 2014.12.04 07:00:00 -
[10] - Quote
PROOF
by your math there are two options win and lose. so you have a 50% chance of winning because winning is 50% of the available outicomes calculating on number of outcomes
100% devided by 2 (total options devided by number of options)
so y using that formula
100% (chance of something happening) devided by (number of potential things that can happen) = (the odds of that happening)
so lets usee that equation of yours for something else and see how it works out
lottery, you with win or you lose
100%/ (win+lose=2) = 50% chance of winning the lottery every time you play
living, you either you live through the next (insert amount of tiime here) or you die in the next (insert amount of time here) only two possable outcomes so
100/2=50% chance of dieing in (insert amount of time here)
THATS the equation your using, and CLEARLY it doesnt apply to anything else in a logical manner
if you apply this equation YOUR usiing to ANY other situation it doesnt work out to whats REALLY going to happen. thats your proof its broken, it doesnt function based on its own rules.
inaddition by your equation EVERY PLAYER in the game should have a win loss ratio of 1
because everyone hass 2 options win or lose at 50%, and therefore everyone should have a win loss ratio of 1 based on YOUR equation. but they dont.
Minmatar is Winmatar
Creed of the Minja - "I'm a leaf on the wind"
I am Chances Ghost
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Ghosts Chance
Inf4m0us
2396
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Posted - 2014.12.04 07:17:00 -
[11] - Quote
Clone D wrote:MINA Longstrike wrote:Clone D wrote:I couldn't care less what you believe. If you look at my post, it says "@Devs". I want a description of their algorithm from them. I really don't care what your comprehension level is. "waaah only devs can tell me I'm wrong, despite the collective observations of many others and myself!". Revising 'stupid' to 'incredibly ****ing dumb' with demonstrably zero understanding of probability. As I asked earlier, please provide reasons for why you think there's a 50/50 chance for either team to have organized squads or not. Because I don't have the data, I will generate a hypothetical situation. Here's a simple one for you. Assume 66% of all FW players squad up and that this percentage is distributed equally between the four factions. 66% of Amarr FW players squad up 66% of Minmatar FW players squad up 66% of Gallente FW players squad up 66% of Caldari FW players squad up If Team A is Amarr and Team B is Minmatar then they both share the same chance of 15/16 players on their team being squadded up: 66% * 15 Players = 10 Squadded players on Team A 66% * 15 Players = 10 Squadded players on Team B That leaves 1 player left on each team: 1 is me, the other can be a squadded or solo player on the other team. Your argument is that organized teams win. As long as there is an equal distribution of percentage of players who squad up in each faction, then there is an equal chance of either side having organized players. The fact that I play solo is only a minor discrepancy in the exact 50/50 ratio in this hypothetical example.
problem
that 15/16 number is wrong becuasse if one playeer choses to squad up he automatically brings in 1-5 players who also have choseen to squad up.
that s what i meant by exponential gain.
its not 66%*15 players, its a nested loop
becuase if hes squaded then he brings in people with him redusing the amount of available space for unsquaded pepople.
for insance
an unsquaded team has something like this
pass = chosees squad, fail = choses no squad
1 fail
1 fail
1 fail
1 fail
1 fail
1 fail
1 fail
1 fail
1 fail
1 fail
1 fail
1 fail
1 fail
1 fail
1 fail
1 fail
compaired to this
1 pass
- 1 autopass due to squad -100% chance of chosing squad instead of 66%
- 1 auto pass due to squad -100% chance of chosing squad instead of 66%
- 1 auto pass due to squad -100% chance of chosing squad instead of 66%
- 1 auto pass due to squad -100% chance of chosing squad instead of 66%
- 1 auto pass due to squad -100% chance of chosing squad instead of 66%
1 fail
1 fail
1 passs
- 1 auto pass due to squad -100% chance of chosing squad instead of 66%
- 1 auto pass due to squad -100% chance of chosing squad instead of 66%
- 1 auto pass due to squad -100% chance of chosing squad instead of 66%
1 fail
1fail
1 pass
- 1 auto pass due to squad -100% chance of chosing squad instead of 66%
Minmatar is Winmatar
Creed of the Minja - "I'm a leaf on the wind"
I am Chances Ghost
|
Ghosts Chance
Inf4m0us
2396
|
Posted - 2014.12.04 07:19:00 -
[12] - Quote
Clone D wrote:MINA Longstrike wrote:^Do not misrepresent my position to try and further your point.
You are not accounting for enough variables, or the factors that people have told you about.
If you are unsquadded it does not select an unsquadded individual for the other side to 'balance' things out, so your '15/16' for the other side is outright wrong. You are making a metric ton of errors, assumptions and fallacies. okay. There is room in the world for you to do math your way, and for me to do math my way. I am satisfied with the results I'm getting, and I find my techniques useful for forecasting and prediction, which is what ultimately helps us to alter our behavior in a beneficial and well adjusted way.
math can only be done one way, thats why its a universal language, it only has one right answer.
your techniques obviously ARNT usefull for forcasting and prediction becuas eyou cant figure out why your not getting the results your math is telling you that you should get.
by chosing to no squad up you lower the chance of you being on an organiseed team by 3-7% rright off the bat (changes bassed on average people chosinng squad)
becuase you chosing not to squad lowers your teams overall average of people willing to squad up.
so your starting at a 43.75% chance of being on the oraganised team (assuming your 50% number is correct wich it isnt)
Minmatar is Winmatar
Creed of the Minja - "I'm a leaf on the wind"
I am Chances Ghost
|
Ghosts Chance
Inf4m0us
2397
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Posted - 2014.12.04 07:49:00 -
[13] - Quote
Clone D wrote:Ghosts Chance wrote:math can only be done one way, thats why its a universal language, it only has one right answer.
your techniques obviously ARNT usefull for forcasting and prediction becuas eyou cant figure out why your not getting the results your math is telling you that you should get.
by chosing to no squad up you lower the chance of you being on an organiseed team by 3-7% rright off the bat (changes bassed on average people chosinng squad)
becuase you chosing not to squad lowers your teams overall average of people willing to squad up.
so your starting at a 43.75% chance of being on the oraganised team (assuming your 50% number is correct wich it isnt) The simulations that I have written have demonstrated a high level of accuracy, reflecting positively upon my ability to forecast and predict. I am very confident in my competence level at this stage in my life. The information I am missing is data that resides in databases on CCPs servers, and algorithms that reside in code in CCPs source control system. The examples provided in this thread have been hypothetical. The title of the thread which includes the word "Theoretical" suggests this.
its not that your numbers are wrong. its that the entire premise is inccorectly established, and when that happens it doesnt matters what numbers your using your going to end up with irrellevant conclusions that dont support findings.
your premise is essentially dust is a game of chance, and can be calculated llike a game of chance, but its not a game of chance, it doesnt follow any of the rules that dominate chanced based events. and your applying chanced bassed logic on something that iisnt chance based.
you cant ever get meaningful data, findings, predictions doing it that way.
its choice based predictions, not chance based predictions that are meaningful in this situation.
Minmatar is Winmatar
Creed of the Minja - "I'm a leaf on the wind"
I am Chances Ghost
|
Ghosts Chance
Inf4m0us
2398
|
Posted - 2014.12.04 08:03:00 -
[14] - Quote
Clone D wrote:Ghosts Chance wrote:your premise is essentially dust is a game of chance, and can be calculated llike a game of chance, but its not a game of chance, it doesnt follow any of the rules that dominate chanced based events. and your applying chanced bassed logic on something that iisnt chance based. We differ on this fundamental perspective. I don't choose who, of all of the people in the world, plays dust. I am subject to choose squad mates from the existing player base. I don't choose the schedules and frequencies by which my Dust acquaintances play. I don't choose the network performance, nor my playstation performance, having optimized every system setting and hardware feature that I can. I don't choose the blueberries on my team. I don't choose how the game is altered by developers. I am subject to many variables, variables whose values are probabilistic, and can vary each passing millisecond. I am well aware of choice and chance, and I am responsible for convincing myself of facts and fallacies, and I most often justify my decisions informationally and by the likelihood of outcomes. This thread was to beckon Devs for information that I could potentially use to help determine how I can alter my behavior to result in more favorable outcomes. That is all.
the answer is join a squad.... doesnt require devs sir
Minmatar is Winmatar
Creed of the Minja - "I'm a leaf on the wind"
I am Chances Ghost
|
Ghosts Chance
Inf4m0us
2398
|
Posted - 2014.12.04 08:16:00 -
[15] - Quote
Clone D wrote:Thaddeus Reynolds wrote:Clone D...your logic makes sense assuming spherical mercs in a vacuum. The fact of the matter is that there are too many variables currently unknown to make an assertion of a 50/50 chance...while I agree matchmaking should endeavor to do this in general, it is difficult when you consider the voluntary nature of the different factions. Agreed. All examples in this thread are hypothetical because I don't have CCPs data. What I do have is my data showing a 5% win ratio of the faction that I played for 20 matches. If that is a normal rate of winning, then I'd like to examine why that faction does so terribly.
you need psychology and sociology rather than statistics for that sir
Minmatar is Winmatar
Creed of the Minja - "I'm a leaf on the wind"
I am Chances Ghost
|
Ghosts Chance
Inf4m0us
2399
|
Posted - 2014.12.04 08:22:00 -
[16] - Quote
MINA Longstrike wrote:^statistics can represent it, provided you're not using a flawed premise and flawed numbers from the start
pretty much.
its much better to start with observable statistics such as "i only seem to win 5% oof my games" and ask why is that? then it is to start with "i shoul dbe winning 50% of my games why arnt i?"
doesnt sound like much of a difference but it is.
then you make calculated assumptions like
"better players seem to play on the other team"
and add observations
"the other team hass more squads"
and comme to rational conclusions like
"better and more organised players play on that side"
then notice other factors like
"people would ratherr win than lose so they switch to the percieved winning side of the war"
and theres your massive win loss advantage.
Minmatar is Winmatar
Creed of the Minja - "I'm a leaf on the wind"
I am Chances Ghost
|
Ghosts Chance
Inf4m0us
2399
|
Posted - 2014.12.04 08:28:00 -
[17] - Quote
Clone D wrote:Ghosts Chance wrote:Clone D wrote:Thaddeus Reynolds wrote:Clone D...your logic makes sense assuming spherical mercs in a vacuum. The fact of the matter is that there are too many variables currently unknown to make an assertion of a 50/50 chance...while I agree matchmaking should endeavor to do this in general, it is difficult when you consider the voluntary nature of the different factions. Agreed. All examples in this thread are hypothetical because I don't have CCPs data. What I do have is my data showing a 5% win ratio of the faction that I played for 20 matches. If that is a normal rate of winning, then I'd like to examine why that faction does so terribly. you need psychology and sociology rather than statistics for that sir All measurable things can be boiled down to data and statistics, including your memory and how many times I must repeat something in order for you to believe it. You don't need to contradict me for the sake of contradiction. You don't need to contradict me for the sake of contradiction. You don't need to contradict me for the sake of contradiction.
memory cant actually be boiled down to data and statistics, we dont even know how it works.
Minmatar is Winmatar
Creed of the Minja - "I'm a leaf on the wind"
I am Chances Ghost
|
Ghosts Chance
Inf4m0us
2399
|
Posted - 2014.12.04 08:39:00 -
[18] - Quote
Clone D wrote:Ghosts Chance wrote:MINA Longstrike wrote:^statistics can represent it, provided you're not using a flawed premise and flawed numbers from the start pretty much. its much better to start with observable statistics such as "i only seem to win 5% oof my games" and ask why is that? then it is to start with "i shoul dbe winning 50% of my games why arnt i?" doesnt sound like much of a difference but it is. then you make calculated assumptions like "better players seem to play on the other team" and add observations "the other team hass more squads" and comme to rational conclusions like "better and more organised players play on that side" then notice other factors like "people would ratherr win than lose so they switch to the percieved winning side of the war" and theres your massive win loss advantage. Asking yourself why something sucks so bad always begins with an internal impression of a difference between what happened and what you imagined could or would probably happen. If I were to see the data, then I could easily determine whether or not a particular faction were devoid of high mu players. Starting from an unbiased template, I began this theoretical discussion using a generic percentage. In a hypothetical well-balanced FW system, the 50% mark seemed like a good pivot from which to work.
except you keep ignoring that Mu isnt used in faction warfare and there is no matchmaking there....
Minmatar is Winmatar
Creed of the Minja - "I'm a leaf on the wind"
I am Chances Ghost
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