You should be assigned to the team you decide to deploy with.

I thought the algorithm was that there isn't an algorithm. We don't have enough players for any algorithm to actually work... I thought they trashed all that back in 1.6 when pub matches were taking 5 minutes to start and would often start with only 1-4 players on each team...

first yyour odds are only 50% if its a damn coin flip, but its not its a game where you have to doo something to win so nope no 50% odds for you.

there is NO matchmaking in faction warfare, NONE, its bring a whole team with you or lose.

speaking of wich your losing becuase your not bringing at the very least a full squad, theres usually on in squad finder to join for any givin faction.

your losing because the other team is que sinqing and your running around solo with an inability to do math or realise the enamy team always seems to have 12 of the same people on it every game.

I think that all the Matchmaking works off Mu.

It's basically a W/L counter, ala chess.

I'm certain that Pubs run that, but I'm not so certain about FW. It could just be a first come first serve basis in FW.

FACTION WARFARE DOES NOT HAVE MATCHMAKING

read

a 50% sucess rate only applys to a RANDOM outcome.

as if win and lose were binary.

winning isnt random and therefore you wont win 50% of the time. statistical norms only function in that manner when the outcome is randomly decided.

setup one build amaar team from first 16 people in line...

squad 3 people
solo
solo
solo
squad 6 people
squad 5 people (error too many people on team A )
-removes squad 5 people
solo
solo
solo
solo


there thats how it builds a frigging team. the ONLY thing it conciiders is weather or not the team has exactly 16 people iin it.

if it has less than 16 then it add the next person (or squad) in line

if it has more than 16 people then it removes the last thing it added

if it has exactly 16 peopel then it starts the match


FW is for organised teams. your loosing more than 50% of the time becuas your not bringing your own organised team.

nope

where are you getting 50% from? becuase from my perspective


5% chance of you buildinng your team in a way that gives you an advantage
95% chance of me building MY team in a way that gives me an advantage

i noow have a 95% chance to win


in faction war YOU BUILD YOUR OWN TEAM, sure you can rely on random to do it, but the enamy team doesnt as they can get 16 people into the same game at will and all be communicating with each other.


its not random in the slightest, i can pick and choose all 16 members of my team if i wish, meaning im building that dvantage into my team on purpose whereas your waiting for that advantagee to be randomly handed to you, lowing your odds of winning below 50%

IT IS NOT RANDOM!

you lose becuasse im hand picking my entire team and you are choseing to take the first 15 other people that want to play

No, it isn't a 50% probability. 'Matchmaking' in faction warfare is not set up to generate matches where people have roughly a 50% chance of winning or losing as there is no 'true matchmaking' for faction warfare. Also, all the logical fallacies, especially ones like gamblers fallacy.

^You only perceive it to be this way because you do not understand the way that faction warfare works. There is no equal chance that your team will have organized squads. In fact if you are running solo it is LESS likely that your team will have organized squads and MORE likely that you'll get randoms.

Lets use what we know to be true. 1) You have already picked your side for faction warfare 2) There is no 'true' matchmaking, it is first come first serve aside from where it ineracts with 3) Faction warfare prefers to grab squads as opposed to individuals.

So building a theoretical pool of players for Cal vs Gal, and starting out at 'zero' time.

1) First check
Gal queue: 8 unsquadded players
Cal queue: 3 unsquadded.
Result : Not enough to generate match

2)Second check 1 second later
Gal queue: 6man squad enters queue, 8 unsquadded players
Cal queue: 1x 5man enters queue, 3 more unsquadded.
Result: Still not enough to generate match.

3)Third check 1 second later
Gal queue: +1 6man and +1 4man squads enter queue, bringing us to 16 squadded (6, 6, 4) and 8 unsquadded
Cal Queue: 5man squad + 3 unsquadded.
Result: Still not enough to generate match.

4)Fourth check 1 second later
Gal : More squads enter queue bringing it to 6 6 6 6 4 & 8 unsquadded
Cal: 6 man + 5man enter queue alongside the existing 5 man, 3 unsquadded still in queue.
Result: Takes the full caldari and gallente squads and matches them up based on order of entry. 6 6 & 8 unsquadded still in gallente, 3 unsquadded still in caldari. more people still sitting in queue.

Etc etc etc etc.

^Extrapolate from what other people have told you.

Faction warfare prefers squads. There is no checks for 'balance' in its 'matchmaking'. Mu cannot be used to balance as you have already determined which team you want to play for.

You do not have a 50:50 chance of winning a faction warfare chance ever. Currently the best way to win is to grab up 15 friends, organize them into squads, get them on voice comms and exploit the currently broken by design system.

No, there isn't. That is a logical fallacy. Even if there was it grabs the first people who were in the queue, so you could have 10 million unsquadded badasses queue up for the caldari behind the 16 cacti and it would still be the unsquadded cacti playing the unsquadded gallente badasses.

Essentially by your logic you are attributing that there is a 50/50 chance that ANYTHING will or wont happen, when that is not the case at all.

Life must be a magical place for idiots, it's a never ending sequence of things that seemingly happen by complete magic.

THERE IS NOT AN EQUAL CHANCE

by not bringing your own team and going tolo into FW you lower the chance of your team being organised making it no longer equal.

you CHOSE weather or not your bringing organised squad, it isnt random its literally your choice

by your account of how probability works nobody in the game should have a win/loss ratio over 1/1 but thats not true we have people with winn lose ratios of over 1 and well under 1

now if you average EVERY player on BOTH teams then the average is 1, but if you only average one team (say amaar fac war only) then the math no longer works.

bionary desisions like that dont work.

look at this this way, tommorow one of two things could happen to you, you could either live through the day, or die before the day is done.

that DOES NOT mean you have a 50% chance of dieing tommorow.

MATH DOES NOT WORK LIKE THAT

You're stupid aren't you? Or you didn't get through math or probability in grade 7.

No, you have actually brought nothing quantative to the table. Nothing you've said is substantiated. I could go back to the discussions about mu matchmaking and reference that stuff.

Your numbers are pulled out of nowhere. If you won't accept what the majority of people who do understand this are telling you there's no point in continuing this conversation.

you do NOT have a 50% chance of being assigned to the winning team

that 50% number assumes ALL things are equal, and they arnt.

for instance, your not organising a squad and almost everyone elsee is, so technically your going to have a higher chance of being on the unorganised team simply by being unorganised.

thats not how statistics, probability and math work.

bionary options are NEVER 50/50 not even a coin flip due to the entropy principal

bionary options are NEVER 50/50 not even a coin flip due to the entropy principal

they do not have the same chance because YOU BEING THERE lowers the chancee of your team being organised becuas eyour chosing to be disorganised lowering your teams odds of sucess.

this game isnt bassed on luck its bassed in skill. your actions directly contribute to winning or losing and therefore yoru actions determin weather you win or lose... your losing becuase your assuming other people will carry you, but by having to carry you your team has a higher chance of losing.

its not 50% it would onlly be 50% if EVERY action in the game was determined by a coin flip, and even then deviation would occur becuase there is no such thing as random.

no

you do not have a 50% chance of dieing tommorow just because the only two options are live and die, therefore you dont have a 50% chance of winning your next match based on the same math.

you really arnt understanding the core reason why your math is broken...

Feel free to persist in being wrong if you want to. Normally people who come up with a hypothesis on how something works and see it demonstrated to be wrong re-evaluate their hypothesis. Facts are your 'belief' on how it should work isn't matching the data you've witnessed. Your belief is empirically wrong.

Oh, we have a misunderstanding of the burden of proof here. It's up to you to provide reasonable grounds for belief that your information is correct before we have to attempt to disprove it.

No one gets to say "THERE'S A TEACUP ORBITING THE SUN RIGHT NOW, PROVE ME WRONG ****ERS! OH WAIT YOU CANT" because they need to provide reasonable grounds to others for them to believe that there might actually be a teacup orbiting the sun.

You're not debating in good faith and are instead descending to even lower and lower depths of insane troll 'logic'.

"waaah only devs can tell me I'm wrong, despite the collective observations of many others and myself!".

Revising 'stupid' to 'incredibly ****ing dumb' with demonstrably zero understanding of probability.

As I asked earlier, please provide reasons for why you think there's a 50/50 chance for either team to have organized squads or not.

^Do not misrepresent my position to try and further your point.

You are not accounting for enough variables, or the factors that people have told you about.

If you are unsquadded it does not select an unsquadded individual for the other side to 'balance' things out, so your '15/16' for the other side is outright wrong. You are making a metric ton of errors, assumptions and fallacies.

Factions do not have equal player resources.
Why is this so difficult to comprehend?

Numerous people have told you this over the pages of your thread and you are still making assumptions like '66% of players squad up, this is true for every faction'. This is not true. If 80% of people on the Gallente side squad up and 20% of people on the Caldari side squad up, there is not going to be a 50% chance of victory for either side.


The arguments of Ghosts and MINA are absolutely correct.

There is not an equal distribution of players who squad up in each faction. Thus, there is not an equal chance of either side having organised players.




I should hope you're not at all happy with the results you're getting, given that they're wildly inaccurate.
Accurate forecasting and prediction is only doable when you aren't starting from wildly inaccurate predictions.

I should hope you're not at all happy with the results you're getting, given that they're wildly inaccurate.
Accurate forecasting and prediction is only doable when you aren't starting from wildly inaccurate predictions.

math can only be done one way, thats why its a universal language, it only has one right answer.

your techniques obviously ARNT usefull for forcasting and prediction becuas eyou cant figure out why your not getting the results your math is telling you that you should get.

by chosing to no squad up you lower the chance of you being on an organiseed team by 3-7% rright off the bat (changes bassed on average people chosinng squad)

becuase you chosing not to squad lowers your teams overall average of people willing to squad up.

so your starting at a 43.75% chance of being on the oraganised team (assuming your 50% number is correct wich it isnt)

If you are solo you will likely lose more than 50% of the time. FW gives priority to squads in matchmaking and places them together. Solo players are more likely to end up with other solo players. If a cluster of solo players goes against a group of squads they are then much more likely to lose.

The solution is to join one of the many FW channels and find a squad. You will get into FW faster and you will be more likely to win as well.

your premise is essentially dust is a game of chance, and can be calculated llike a game of chance, but its not a game of chance, it doesnt follow any of the rules that dominate chanced based events. and your applying chanced bassed logic on something that iisnt chance based.

the answer is join a squad.... doesnt require devs sir

Clone D...your logic makes sense assuming spherical mercs in a vacuum. The fact of the matter is that there are too many variables currently unknown to make an assertion of a 50/50 chance...while I agree matchmaking should endeavor to do this in general, it is difficult when you consider the voluntary nature of the different factions.

you need psychology and sociology rather than statistics for that sir

pretty much.

its much better to start with observable statistics such as "i only seem to win 5% oof my games" and ask why is that? then it is to start with "i shoul dbe winning 50% of my games why arnt i?"

doesnt sound like much of a difference but it is.

then you make calculated assumptions like

"better players seem to play on the other team"
and add observations
"the other team hass more squads"

and comme to rational conclusions like

"better and more organised players play on that side"

then notice other factors like

"people would ratherr win than lose so they switch to the percieved winning side of the war"

and theres your massive win loss advantage.

memory cant actually be boiled down to data and statistics, we dont even know how it works.

data and statistics arnt the answer, they are the question.

data and statistics are how we translate what we know iinto a mathmatical equasion, its a tool and as a tool the power isnt in the numbers its how you use them that makes them useful.

its our interpretation of that data that makes them useful, and inturpretation is subject to human error.

except you keep ignoring that Mu isnt used in faction warfare and there is no matchmaking there....

Placing whoever hits search first into a battle while moving certain people ahead of the line does not constitute matchmaking. Also I never said it was random , I said there is no matchmaking.

Play well.

If you want to be 'assigned to a winning team', then squad up.

A dev posting in this thread is not going to magically make all sides ever equal.
You asked if you could, as a solo player, increase your chance of being assigned to a winning team.
Aside from that essentially being a request to be carried all the time, how exactly do you propose this be accomplished? You press X on the queue, and then get thrown into the first match available. How is this conducive to a dev comment helping you get on a team to carry you?

Any player that actually says they are an exceptional player instantly inspires doubt in my mind. Likely than not you are just like me.

An average, perhaps even sub average depending on who you ask (Arkena and Lorhak), and can roll newbies and players not putting up concerted resistance.

Forming up is a natural part of organised gameplay and it doesn't nearly take 20 minutes in FW to do.

PC groups nowadays, and even back when I did PC used to form up and hour before battles and just talk tactics, fits, and other junk.

Then it is quite simple - do not play a gamemode with a greater emphasis on organisation and teamwork if you want to just play solo.

Indeed. You are taking up a spot on a team that would be better suited for a squadded player.

Of course.

But it is unreasonable to try it, lose a few matches, and then declare that there must be a problem with the matchmaking and obstinately insist on it despite the reasons behind the uneven teams being repeatedly explained.