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Rynx Sinfar
Subdreddit Test Alliance Please Ignore
1217
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Posted - 2014.04.03 17:46:00 -
[31] - Quote
Hey Brush I may have gotten a little emotionally invested in the math.
IR = Investment Return - Total you will have if lottery won compared to what you invested (if you put in 100m and win 200m this would be 200%) iP = Initial Pot Size OW = Odds of winning (for person contemplating purchase) T = Ticket Price sT = Sold Tickets - Tickets already bought TPP = Ticket Price Percent that is placed in the pot
If you look at a lotto you can know the initial pot size, sold tickets, ticket price, and ticket price percent for pot.
If you then say "I want a 95% chance of winning" you have the "odds of winning".
With those numbers you can determine the possible "investment return" with the formula:
iP * ( 1 - OW ) TPP ----------------- + ------ sT * OW * T OW
Which isn't very helpful because I didn't include how much you wanted to invest and etc. But that isn't important in this case.
What DOES matter is we can convert that to find sold tickets which results in:
iP * ( 1 - OW ) -------------------------- T * ( IR * OW - TPP )
For the sake of argument let's call "Odds of winning" 50%, and investment return of 200%.
What the above formula says is "With your starting pot size, tickets at that price, and a ticket percent to pot of that number someone could purchase enough tickets for a 50% chance of winning with an investment return of 200% until X number of tickets have otherwise been sold". Which is not too big of a deal.
But if I use it on the faction warfare lotto example and I want a 90% chance of winning and a an investment return of 150% I could find that with a 10 million starting cost, 500k ticket cost, and 90% ticket to pool return, then when 5 tickets are purchased I can no longer achieve that investment return and keep a 90% chance of winning. The lower the number the better, and the farther they expect the actual number to get away from that number the better.
As a more realistic example of "utility" I input for the same lotto a 75% chance of winning and a 150% investment return. The result was that if 22 tickets were purchased before me (and I could guarantee no others would be bought) then I could still achieve those numbers. The importance there is that statistically speaking if I kept investing in 75% odds that would give me a 150% investment result, then my money would grow at a rate of 12.5% depending on how quickly I could invest.
As I mentioned in the previous post the odds of someone managing this is minimal (though timezones and etc), but you could likely whip up a "minimal" circumstance where if someone is being a bit too generous then they can be warned that while it's great that they are doing it, they might have some unintended consequences. That part can be tricky but as you do lotteries you can use historical data. If you keep track of the ticket price v current cost on average of purchasers you might manage this.
Anyway my suggestion would be take the investment return formula, decide on a baseline odds of winning which would be "bad", a reasonable number of ticket purchases to be expected, and then a "warning" level for investment return. Where you can say that at the current numbers it may end up worthwhile for someone to "buy out" the lotto.
Oh wait, screw those above ideas. Use the formula to recommend a number. So they list a ticket price, an initial pot, and you recommend a ticket return percent, or they list an initial pot, a ticket return percent and you recommend a ticket price.
idk, have fun, do what you like, if you have any questions on the math above just ping me on IRC
Text Hydra of Subdreddit
"Remove one word and two shall rise"
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Viktor Hadah Jr
Critical-Impact
3289
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Posted - 2014.04.03 17:57:00 -
[32] - Quote
Rynx Sinfar wrote:Jadek Menaheim wrote:Rynx Sinfar wrote:I too am curious about this since the payouts have to be manually done I wondered if there was a way to stipulate that if player X payed over a certain threshold to gain Y number of tickets, any additional ticket purchases would be refunded back to player X. Right now, it's ease to use this system as a scam by flooding the pot with a lot of ticket purchases. I'm not exactly sure how submissions are 'queried' to random.org. Its kind of a weird setup though for "scamming". There are 18 tickets sold for that faction warfare alliance trial lottery one. Each sold at 500k. 90% goes into pot. It is currently at 18.1 million. So 8.1 Million was from ticket sales and it started at 10 million.
Let's say I decide to buy enough tickets to get a 50% chance of winning. So I need to buy 18 tickets for a total of 9 million isk. The total is 26.2 Million Isk. My profit if I win would be 17.2 Million Isk. So my money would be 291% greater than it was originally. Not bad for 50/50 odds. If I wanted to have a 75% chance of winning I'd buy 54 tickets. This would cost me 27 Million isk and the pot would be 42.4 Million isk. My profit if I win would be 15.4 Million Isk, and my money would be 157% of what it was originally, still not terribly for 75% odds. If I wanted 90% odds I'd buy 162 tickets at a price of 81 million. Pot would be 91 Million, profit would be 10 million, and my money would be 112% of what it originally was. Which is not terrible for a near guarantee. .
Found a little problem with your math...
You are saying you need to buy 18 more tickets for 9mil that is what you are using as an expense that is your ISK so you can no count it towards your profit your profit will be only that of ISK others spent so 8.1Mil while you invested 18.1Mil yourself.
So you still have the 50/50 chance of winning but you are risking more than twice the reward.
50Mil ISK Lottery
Queen improves gameplay by 100%
Inertia dampeners are for poors
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Rynx Sinfar
Subdreddit Test Alliance Please Ignore
1217
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Posted - 2014.04.03 19:49:00 -
[33] - Quote
Viktor Hadah Jr wrote:
Found a little problem with your math...
You are saying you need to buy 18 more tickets for 9mil that is what you are using as an expense that is your ISK so you can no count it towards your profit your profit will be only that of ISK others spent so 8.1Mil while you invested 18.1Mil yourself.
So you still have the 50/50 chance of winning but you are risking more than twice the reward.
Ah took me a second, think I see the issue you are referring to.
Quote:So my money would be 291% greater than it was originally.
Is incorrectly worded, should be
Quote:So my money would be 291% of its original total.
As in 9 mil ISK being spent, for a total of 26.2 mil ISK post, which if won would be 291% of the original amount or an increase of 191%. Generally when I am showing percent increases at 100% above I prefer to use the total change rather than net change.
Text Hydra of Subdreddit
"Remove one word and two shall rise"
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Brush Master
HavoK Core RISE of LEGION
1113
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Posted - 2014.04.04 12:50:00 -
[34] - Quote
Sum1ne Else wrote:Bump, This is awesome!
Working to make it better
514th Wing // Team Fairy DUST // Havok Core
[email protected] // http://dustlottery.com
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Jadek Menaheim
Xer Cloud Consortium
2587
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Posted - 2014.04.04 14:57:00 -
[35] - Quote
Thanks for your help. Emailed you a quick question.
Video: I don't always fight dropships, but when I do...
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Brush Master
HavoK Core RISE of LEGION
1118
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Posted - 2014.04.05 00:53:00 -
[36] - Quote
added a public ticket log that you can see when viewing a lottery, http://dustlottery.com/lottery/amirite for now it is public but may added a privacy feature in the future.
514th Wing // Team Fairy DUST // Havok Core
[email protected] // http://dustlottery.com
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Jimmy McNaulty
NECROM0NGERS Caps and Mercs
63
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Posted - 2014.04.05 01:56:00 -
[37] - Quote
if I want 4 tickets, do i have to send them individually, or can i just go ahead and, for example, send 100 000 ISK to a 25 000 ISK lotto and expect that I've received 4 tickets, rather than paid 100K for a single ticket?
Just curious and love the concept! JUST EPIC! Now if only we could see custom made advertisements in-game and could really start getting user generated content on a regular basis inside our MQs.
+1 |
Brush Master
HavoK Core RISE of LEGION
1118
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Posted - 2014.04.05 02:07:00 -
[38] - Quote
Jimmy McNaulty wrote:if I want 4 tickets, do i have to send them individually, or can i just go ahead and, for example, send 100 000 ISK to a 25 000 ISK lotto and expect that I've received 4 tickets, rather than paid 100K for a single ticket?
Just curious and love the concept! JUST EPIC! Now if only we could see custom made advertisements in-game and could really start getting user generated content on a regular basis inside our MQs.
+1
only 1 transaction per lottery is needed, the script knows how to divide total by ticket cost
514th Wing // Team Fairy DUST // Havok Core
[email protected] // http://dustlottery.com
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Jimmy McNaulty
NECROM0NGERS Caps and Mercs
64
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Posted - 2014.04.05 02:19:00 -
[39] - Quote
Brush Master wrote:only 1 transaction per lottery is needed, the script knows how to divide total by ticket cost
Awesome to hear. Will defo be all up on this. Cheers |
Jadek Menaheim
Xer Cloud Consortium
2623
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Posted - 2014.04.06 07:49:00 -
[40] - Quote
This is a great addition. Thank for investing so much time into this community asset.
Video: I don't always fight dropships, but when I do...
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Jadek Menaheim
Villore Sec Ops Gallente Federation
2682
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Posted - 2014.04.08 03:39:00 -
[41] - Quote
Thank you Brush Master, you have helped me fuel my Dust 514 twitter propaganda machine. +1 https://forums.dust514.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=154384&find=unread
Video: I don't always fight dropships, but when I do...
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Brush Master
HavoK Core RISE of LEGION
1135
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Posted - 2014.04.10 13:39:00 -
[42] - Quote
Coding on backend continues, I know I have had some requests for things like private lotteries, restricted to xx alliance or corporation, will definitely consider this down the road.
514th Wing // Team Fairy DUST // Havok Core
[email protected] // DustLottery.com
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Bes Amelo Negro
MEN IN BLACK FAMILY
0
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Posted - 2014.04.11 00:17:00 -
[43] - Quote
Good evening, I'm using google translator. Tonight I created a lottery to try the lotus crazy and have sent 5 million ISK not understand English very well and I think I did everything right. But it's been several hours and still not on, maybe the problem is that I sent the money from the character rather than the corporation? or activated it takes more than 3 hours? -á Thank you. |
Brush Master
HavoK Core RISE of LEGION
1141
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Posted - 2014.04.11 01:39:00 -
[44] - Quote
Bes Amelo Negro wrote:Good evening, I'm using google translator. Tonight I created a lottery to try the lotus crazy and have sent 5 million ISK not understand English very well and I think I did everything right. But it's been several hours and still not on, maybe the problem is that I sent the money from the character rather than the corporation? or activated it takes more than 3 hours? -á Thank you.
Please confirm where you sent the isk, i do not see any entries. If you are trying to setup a lottery, you must make an account on the site, setup the lottery and then send isk.
514th Wing // Team Fairy DUST // Havok Core
[email protected] // DustLottery.com
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Brush Master
havok core RISE of LEGION
1143
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Posted - 2014.04.11 12:20:00 -
[45] - Quote
Brush Master wrote:Bes Amelo Negro wrote:Good evening, I'm using google translator. Tonight I created a lottery to try the lotus crazy and have sent 5 million ISK not understand English very well and I think I did everything right. But it's been several hours and still not on, maybe the problem is that I sent the money from the character rather than the corporation? or activated it takes more than 3 hours? -á Thank you. Please confirm where you sent the isk, i do not see any entries. If you are trying to setup a lottery, you must make an account on the site, setup the lottery and then send isk.
Ok I found your entry, the one for the amirite was processed. Your one that you were trying to make a lottery. If you create an account, http://dustlottery.com/users/register use your character name Bes Amelo Negro then created a lottery http://dustlottery.com/drawing/create and have a starting amount of 5,000,000 your lottery will be created.
514th Wing // Team Fairy DUST // Havok Core
[email protected] // DustLottery.com
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Jadek Menaheim
Ancient Textiles.
2691
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Posted - 2014.04.11 12:29:00 -
[46] - Quote
Brush Master wrote:Coding on backend continues, I know I have had some requests for things like private lotteries, restricted to xx alliance or corporation, will definitely consider this down the road. For now we can take advantage of existing mechanics. Every player in this corporation has director privileges, thus wallet access. So when the the lottery ends funds are deposited by your system back into the corporation pools and the members of XERCC feed like piranhas.
http://dustlottery.com/lottery/xer
Video: I don't always fight dropships, but when I do...
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Brush Master
havok core RISE of LEGION
1144
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Posted - 2014.04.11 12:32:00 -
[47] - Quote
Jadek Menaheim wrote:Brush Master wrote:Coding on backend continues, I know I have had some requests for things like private lotteries, restricted to xx alliance or corporation, will definitely consider this down the road. For now we can take advantage of existing mechanics. Every player in this corporation has director privileges, thus wallet access. So when the the lottery ends funds are deposited by your system back into the corporation pools and the members of XERCC feed like piranhas. http://dustlottery.com/lottery/xer
Jadek, I think your term of scam in description will actually scare off most people.
514th Wing // Team Fairy DUST // Havok Core
[email protected] // DustLottery.com
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Jadek Menaheim
Ancient Textiles.
2691
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Posted - 2014.04.11 12:36:00 -
[48] - Quote
Brush Master wrote:Jadek, I think your term of scam in description will actually scare off most people. Not the members of Xer Cloud Consortium. We have an understanding on the irony of using the term 'scam.' Regardless, it would be nice to edit and correct a lottery description after submission.
Video: I don't always fight dropships, but when I do...
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Bes Amelo Negro
MEN IN BLACK FAMILY
0
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Posted - 2014.04.11 13:39:00 -
[49] - Quote
hi brush
i send 5 millon to participate on lotery, and resend 5 millons for create lotery, 15 minutes diference. i have screenshot, and send to mail : [email protected]
Recreate new lotery or use existent?
Thx
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Brush Master
HavoK Core RISE of LEGION
1147
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Posted - 2014.04.11 15:37:00 -
[50] - Quote
Bes Amelo Negro wrote:hi brush i send 5 millon to participate on lotery, and resend 5 millons for create lotery, 15 minutes diference. i have screenshot, and send to mail : [email protected]Recreate new lotery or use existent? Thx
the problem with your send was that you sent it from a character. Lotteries can only be created by corporations as that i how we track it currently. I will mark yours down for refund on my next payout cycle.
514th Wing // Team Fairy DUST // Havok Core
[email protected] // DustLottery.com
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Brush Master
HavoK Core RISE of LEGION
1148
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Posted - 2014.04.11 17:08:00 -
[51] - Quote
you can now edit your pending lotteries.
as v.2 is wrapping up, I am working on planning out v.3
http://dustlottery.com/pages/roadmap
514th Wing // Team Fairy DUST // Havok Core
[email protected] // DustLottery.com
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Tornado Clone
G.R.A.V.E INTERGALACTIC WARPIGS
29
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Posted - 2014.04.14 18:21:00 -
[52] - Quote
This is awesome.
If i host a lottery would i be able to offer a prize as well as the isk pool payout, like a code for ingame items, i supply the codes. |
Jadek Menaheim
Ancient Textiles.
2716
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Posted - 2014.04.14 18:28:00 -
[53] - Quote
Tornado Clone wrote:This is awesome.
If i host a lottery would i be able to offer a prize as well as the isk pool payout, like a code for ingame items, i supply the codes. I imagine that's not something Brush would handle for verification reasons. You could still very easily hand out a code to the announced winner of the lottery on your own accord.
Video: I don't always fight dropships, but when I do...
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Tornado Clone
G.R.A.V.E INTERGALACTIC WARPIGS
30
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Posted - 2014.04.14 18:35:00 -
[54] - Quote
Jadek Menaheim wrote:Tornado Clone wrote:This is awesome.
If i host a lottery would i be able to offer a prize as well as the isk pool payout, like a code for ingame items, i supply the codes. I imagine that's not something Brush would handle for verification reasons. You could still very easily hand out a code to the announced winner of the lottery on your own accord.
Yeah thats what i was kinda thinking. Its more like getting permission from mr. Brush to put it in the lottery description. you could even give different codes for first second and third place. payout for first place plus code second place a pretty cool code third place, a common code |
Jadek Menaheim
Ancient Textiles.
2718
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Posted - 2014.04.14 18:39:00 -
[55] - Quote
Tornado Clone wrote:Yeah thats what i was kinda thinking. Its more like getting permission from mr. Brush to put it in the lottery description. you could even give different codes for first second and third place. payout for first place plus code second place a pretty cool code third place, a common code This sounds like a good idea. I would highly suggest that you create a thread here in the Code Bazaar forum section to officiate any code transfers. Just good business practice.
Video: I don't always fight dropships, but when I do...
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Tornado Clone
G.R.A.V.E INTERGALACTIC WARPIGS
31
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Posted - 2014.04.14 18:44:00 -
[56] - Quote
Jadek Menaheim wrote:Tornado Clone wrote:Yeah thats what i was kinda thinking. Its more like getting permission from mr. Brush to put it in the lottery description. you could even give different codes for first second and third place. payout for first place plus code second place a pretty cool code third place, a common code This sounds like a good idea. I would highly suggest that you create a thread here in the Code Bazaar forum section to officiate any code transfers. Just good business practice.
Very good advice. they would have to be templar codes to be fully protected in the code bazaar. but i was also thinking like a lav bundle code or exile AR code too, both of which still exist and work, but arent supported on the forums because they are playstation codes. I guess to be fully legit and trusted it would have to be templar gear and the uplink |
Tornado Clone
G.R.A.V.E INTERGALACTIC WARPIGS
32
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Posted - 2014.04.16 12:17:00 -
[57] - Quote
Hi I'm gonna get a few tickets for your lottery. As far as twitter content would you post my recruit link or maybe an add for our corp. Thanks for your time |
Jadek Menaheim
Ancient Textiles.
2735
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Posted - 2014.04.16 12:29:00 -
[58] - Quote
You got it. Will post when the funds appear on ticket ledger.
Video: I don't always fight dropships, but when I do...
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Tornado Clone
G.R.A.V.E INTERGALACTIC WARPIGS
33
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Posted - 2014.04.16 23:40:00 -
[59] - Quote
Jadek Menaheim wrote:You got it. Will post when the funds appear on ticket ledger.
Cool man. I like this idea. ill buy three tickets right now. https://dust514.com/recruit/F4oMCT my recruit link.
hell maybe, depending on how you post it and what not, you could let people know that i will pay them 50 mil. isk once their legit recruit reaches 100,000 WP ill even par for when you reach 25,000 WP MILESTONE one million isk. thanks let me know if this is asking to much. |
Jadek Menaheim
Ancient Textiles.
2737
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Posted - 2014.04.17 00:12:00 -
[60] - Quote
@Tornado Clone
Check out @JadeKMenaheim's Tweet: https://twitter.com/JadeKMenaheim/status/456583527962669056
Does this format work for you? I can schedule similar tweets and/or recruitment to G.R.A.V.E. Anything you would like to highlight about your corp?
Video: I don't always fight dropships, but when I do...
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