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Royce Kronos
Sanguis Defense Syndicate
133
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Posted - 2014.03.12 01:53:00 -
[1] - Quote
There has been debate of whether or not we will reach 1 million clones this weekend. (Probably not, but shhh.) So IGÇÖm here to hopefully put your fears to rest. (Not really, I just like crunching numbers.) 
This will have some tables and some descriptions. Anyway, without further adieu, here are my estimated statistics.
The 1 Million Clone Challenge: Destroy 1,000,000 clones over the weekend. We will have approximately 70.5 hours to do so, excluding downtime, so for all intent and purposes, I will say 70 hours.
Our total online player base at any time, is on average is 3000, so to average out down time and player rotations, let us say that only -+ or 2250 of those players are online at all times. To account for restocking, and afk players, we shall assume that only 70% of online players are actively playing consistently. So our active player count is now at 1575.
Before we go into game times an all, let just take a look at the raw data we have.
- Clone to destroy: ..........................................................1,000,000
- Total time (in hours): .....................................................70
- Average active player count: .......................................1575
With this alone, if we take the total clone to destroy, divided by the player count, divided by the hours, we get this:
1,000,000 clones / 1575 players / 70 hrs = 9.070 clones per player per hour.
This means that if every active player destroys 9 clones an hour, we should be able to achieve 1 million clones. However, we can extrapolate this data further.
Now since this is all estimations and averages, letGÇÖs say that an average match requires 10 minutes and depletes 150 clones. Matches that take longer usually deplete more clones, and AmbushGÇÖs may deplete fewer clones but require less time, also assuming that people will be killing more clones for this event.
The total time of this event, in minutes is 4200 minutes (70 hrs * 60 min/hrs). A total of 420 games (4200 minutes / 10 minutes/game) can be played consecutively throughout the event.
Each game can have 32 players, so if you take the active players divided by 32, you can estimate the number of games running simultaneously. (1575 players / 32 player per match = 49.2188 matches)
- Clones to destroy: ..........................................................1,000,000
- Total time (in minutes): ....................................................4200
- Possible matches throughout event: ..............................420
- Average active player count: .........................................1575
- Total simultaneous games: ..............................................50
- Estimated clone loss per game: ......................................150
If we have 50 matches running simultaneously 420 times with an average rate of 150 clones destroyed per match, we get 3,150,000.
With this estimate, we should hit 1 million clones in 22.22 hours or 0915 UTC.
With those same stats, let say only 100 clones are destroyed per match, our finishing time should be 2020 UTC.
Either way, we should be hitting that number pretty nicely. Though, feel free to contradict my assumptions and calculations.
TL:DR
We will hit 1 million clones. Go buy an omega booster. 
Peace
The future belongs to the few of us still willing to get our hands dirty.
SDSyn
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Royce Kronos
Sanguis Defense Syndicate
133
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Posted - 2014.03.12 01:53:00 -
[2] - Quote
Reserved, or something.
The future belongs to the few of us still willing to get our hands dirty.
SDSyn
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Viktor Hadah Jr
Critical-Impact
2981
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Posted - 2014.03.12 01:54:00 -
[3] - Quote
reserved
Selling Templar BPO's 250Mil Last of the BPO's(Click link)
I feed off your tears
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LT SHANKS
Amarr Templars
Amarr Empire
1621
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Posted - 2014.03.12 01:55:00 -
[4] - Quote
You forgot to take into account |
Cyzad4
Blackfish Corp.
171
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Posted - 2014.03.12 01:59:00 -
[5] - Quote
Dude you need another hobby.. also +1 good work haha
Welcome to you're "DOOM"
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Royce Kronos
Sanguis Defense Syndicate
134
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Posted - 2014.03.12 02:05:00 -
[6] - Quote
Viktor Hadah Jr wrote:We should hit even faster, you are saying 3,000 is average which is true during weekdays but during week days we peak at 4,300 but the average for the rest of the day can be put at 3,500-3,750.
Yeah, for the most part, I haven't taken into account weekend peak times and additional players from the event hype. So this is a very low end calculation.
The future belongs to the few of us still willing to get our hands dirty.
SDSyn
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William HBonney
Ancient Exiles.
Renegade Alliance
393
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Posted - 2014.03.12 02:12:00 -
[7] - Quote
That is what we call a coservative estimation. |
Dimmu Borgir II
The New Age Outlaws
WINMATAR.
249
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Posted - 2014.03.12 02:13:00 -
[8] - Quote
Way to take someone else's effort and just put in a bit more detail.... 
https://forums.dust514.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=147206&find=unread
Blue is good, red is bad, orange you glad you're not red?
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Royce Kronos
Sanguis Defense Syndicate
135
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Posted - 2014.03.12 02:18:00 -
[9] - Quote
Haha, yeah. I've actually been running numbers by my boss since yesterday. I finally sat down and compiled them this evening.
The future belongs to the few of us still willing to get our hands dirty.
SDSyn
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Dimmu Borgir II
The New Age Outlaws
WINMATAR.
249
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Posted - 2014.03.12 02:57:00 -
[10] - Quote
Royce Kronos wrote:Haha, yeah. I've actually been running numbers by my boss since yesterday. I finally sat down and compiled them this evening. And I don't think so. With people aware of this event, I think people will be running cheaper suits and/or terminating clones more often. If one side is cloned, that's 150. If you both hit 75, that's 150. Ambushes can usually be finished within 5 - 8 minutes with at least 50 - 80 clones depleted. On average, that should come close to 100. That's also why I throw out the 100 clone count per match at the end.
You could be right, it'll be nice if they give us a breakdown during the event although i imagine they won't.
Blue is good, red is bad, orange you glad you're not red?
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Royce Kronos
Sanguis Defense Syndicate
140
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Posted - 2014.03.13 02:35:00 -
[11] - Quote
Pretty shamefull.
The future belongs to the few of us still willing to get our hands dirty.
SDSyn
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John Demonsbane
Unorganized Ninja Infantry Tactics
League of Infamy
2353
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Posted - 2014.03.13 02:38:00 -
[12] - Quote
6/10. Too much maths and not enough killing or references to Khorne.
"The line between disorder and order lies in logistics" -Sun Tzu
Forum Warrior lv.2
Amarr victor!
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Royce Kronos
Sanguis Defense Syndicate
142
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Posted - 2014.03.13 02:54:00 -
[13] - Quote
John Demonsbane wrote:6/10. Too much maths and not enough killing or references to Khorne.
TL:DR
Khorne will be pleased with this weekend's sacrifice. 
In other news, I'm trying to see with peak attendance, how fast we will hit 2 million. Probably not that long.
So yeah, 
The future belongs to the few of us still willing to get our hands dirty.
SDSyn
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