There's almost definitely going to be a refund for the physical changes they're making, whereas the balancing and addition changes probably won't get a refund.

Sentinel, Commando, Scout dropsuit skills - Almost guaranteed
Entire dropsuit command - likely
Entire dropsuit upgrades tree - maybe
Anything out of weaponry - very unlikely.
Entire respec - No, just no.

The thing is, weapon balances and dropsuit balances in the past haven't given us skill points back. It's only when they've added a substatial amount to the game (i.e. Uprising) or when they completely change and rebalance the physical properties of an item (i.e. the tank update)

but the problem is, they haven't really changed anything with the weapons. Yeah they swung a giant nerf bat at them but that's no reason for them to give us points back. The only time I would want CCP to give me a refund in weaponry is if they changed the Scrambler to an automatic weapon, or if they made the HMG increase in spread as you fire it.

Changing physical properties is what demands a refund, not just nerfing, balancing, or new stuff.