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Virtual Riot
The Vanguardians
83
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Posted - 2013.11.28 02:00:00 -
[1] - Quote
Eventually you will be able to sell your officer weapons on the free market to other Dust514 players.
But how does one know how to make the most out of it? Do you sell right away when the market opens in an attempt to catch the wave? Or do you ride it out and set your sights on calmer water?
To do this we need raw data. We all know that a market is controlled by supply and demand. Realistically its a bit more complicated than that. We need a few key bits of data to make an accurate prediction.
1. What is the cost to produce an officer weapon?
You might be temped to say that there is no cost as you receive officer gear randomly for free in public matches. In reality this is not true. The cost to produce an officer weapon would be the time it took you to obtain it. Personally I would measure the time in # of matches, and that could be the "cost" to produce an officer weapon. Since I assume that all officer gear has an equal chance of dropping, I'm just going to group them all together with the same cost.
Tl;dr, How long does it take to produce an officer weapon on average?
Now this is where the data comes in. I've been playing for roughly a year. (started playing a bit before chromosome released)
I have only ever lost 1 officer weapon and that was a gastuns forge gun. By looking at my total accumulated officer weapons over the course of one year, and giving myself an average of 4 matches a day, we can come up with a cost.
16 Balac's
10 Krin's
30 Thale's
3 PCP-30's
9 Gastun's Forge Gun ( 8 + 1 that I lost)
16 Gastun's HMG
That gives us a total of 84 Officer weapon drops over the course of 1460 matches. That means that the chance to get an officer weapon is probably around the 5% mark. (5.7% for me). Or, about 1 officer weapon every 20 matches (17 for me).
Tl;dr It costs on average about 20 matches to obtain an officers weapon
2. Obtaining the real ISK cost to produce
Now, the actual cost of your match in terms of isk can vary wildly from player to player. Obviously the most cost-effective way to farm officer gear would be to run free suits in the shortest game mode (ambush). So how do you determine a cost other than the arbitrary "20 matches"?
To do this accurately, we really would need the value of the average length of a match in Dust514, and the average payout of said match. This could be equated into what we mercenaries get paid per hour on average for our jobs. Then we could simply multiply the isk made per match by 20 and you would end up with the price of an officer weapon in terms of isk.
Just for the sake of an example and my own guessing, I would say that the average length of a match in Dust514 (Average of all game modes) is probably around the 15 minute mark. And the average payout of said match is probably around the 200,000 ISK mark. If you have a differing opinion please post below and we can form a more accurate model.
So it takes 300 minutes or 5 hours to get an officer drop
And by the time you've played those 5 hours you will have made 4 million isk. (Think of the contract giver as the employer, the match itself is the work, and the officer weapon as the end product)
Thats about 800,000 ISK an hour we get paid, just a little fun bit.
Tl;dr The production cost of an officer weapon in terms of ISK is 4 million |
Virtual Riot
The Vanguardians
83
|
Posted - 2013.11.28 02:01:00 -
[2] - Quote
3. Selling Point
So if it costs 4 million isk, what should be your selling point? To do this we have to look at demand, we have to look at your customers.
Who is going to buy this product? The answer is rich PC corporations.
Next you have to find out what their perceived value of the product is. Why do they buy the product? What do they get out of it? The answer is that they get an edge over their opponent in battle, allowing them to win PC matches more easily.
But still, what is the value?
Well. What is the value of winning a PC match? ISK? Bragging rights? Reputation? All of these things. But how will PC corps value these things in terms of ISK?
The answer is that they will only continue to buy officer weapons at a rate at which they can continue to turn a profit winning districts with them.
Tl;dr Unfortunately, only time will tell what these hidden values really are.
But in the meantime we can make some educated guesstimating.
A district produces 80 clones per day, or 100 with a production facility. Selling to Genolution at a rate of 110,000 isk each, that nets you 11 million ISK per day for each district. In other terms 13.75 man hours each day.
An officer weapon takes 5 man hours to produce. That is a static value.
Lets guesstimate that a PC corp loses about 20 officer weapons on average to take a district. That equates to 100 man hours just in officer weapons. A corporation would have to hold that district for about 7 days to recoup their losses.
Is that worth it to them? Only time will tell, or you can ask them yourself.
Tl;dr Considering players are paid to play matches already, the selling point of officer weapons would most likely remain the same as the production cost until players themselves will have to pay for contracts.
ULTRA TL;DR
At the beginning, the market will be flooded. People will not realize that the cost to produce an officer weapon can be as high as 20 matches aka 5 man hours aka 4 mil.
They will sell cheaper. Much cheaper.
My advice, and the advice I will be giving myself.
Buy as much officer gear as you can when the market opens up, it will become very cheap, until the price stabilizes around the 4 million mark.
At that point the demand will have met the supply in market equilibrium, and you can reliably get the most money for your stock of weapons. Only sell the FOTM. Buy the most UP weapon.
Just remember. Demand for different officer weapons will fluctuate depending on FOTM. So as stated above. Buy low sell high. Follow the nerf buff cycle to max profits.
Riot out  |
Virtual Riot
The Vanguardians
90
|
Posted - 2013.11.28 06:38:00 -
[3] - Quote
Roy Ventus wrote:Question to you...How would FW Store Equipment play in all this? Both Aurum Items and Special Faction based items will be on sale.
The fact that we're not spending ISK but Loyalty Points on these items could make them cheaper than what they would be if they were ISK bought right? Or because they can be bought with actual money in the real world and the fact that you can't get them UNLESS you go deep into a faction's loyalty system(which is complex to the point where you can't play all sides) they would cost even more?
I considered this during my musing. But the simple fact is that we have little to no info on LP items, what they are, what they cost. If in fact you can purchase Officer weapons with LP, then obviously supply would go up, which would cause the price to go down, and cause demand to go up.
I mean, even if I guesses at this, it would most likely be wildly inaccurate.
But if faction weapons are indeed their own subcategory, then I would place them at or slightly above proto level, but below officer level. My guess is that faction weapons and dropsuits will be given little more than a fancy name and an eye catching color scheme.
Regardless, I believe officer weapons will be far more valuable than people think they will be. After people foolishly sell their weapons to the PC corps, who then in turn use them to win PC battles, at a rate which will far surpass the rate at which they can be produced by the general population. After the surplus runs out, officer weapons are going to be VERY rare.
1 in every 20 matches guys |
Virtual Riot
The Vanguardians
90
|
Posted - 2013.11.28 06:52:00 -
[4] - Quote
Thurak1 wrote:This is one very long post for an issue that can be summed up in 1 or 2 sentences. When / if we ever get a player run market the cost of any goods is basically whatever someone is willing to pay for them.
Look at ebay for example. I see stuff on ebay sell for above retail price quite often. No idea why myself but stuff is worth only as much as some sucker is willing to pay.
If your trying to sell an officer weapon and its not selling it is over-priced. If your selling an officer weapon and you can't keep it in stock you might consider increasing the price.
No idea why such a long drawn out discussion has started over this i am guessing the OP didn't have much to do when he wrote this. Lol maybe he is at work like i am and just watching for firewall alerts to show up.
... I did math, and a lot of guessing to come up with the number of 4 mil for an officer weapon
If I didn't show my thought process and math then people like you would have just said "oh bro whered you get those numbers" and write me off as some troll.
It was a lot more than the usual statement about this sort of thing such as " Supply and Demand bro" or "Market is gon be flooded so hard man"
Many people don't really understand what that means and I was trying to explain it here. |
Virtual Riot
The Vanguardians
93
|
Posted - 2013.11.28 15:04:00 -
[5] - Quote
I do notice that they do come in packs sometimes but, it can't always be 3
Some of my weapon numbers are not multiples of 3 |
Virtual Riot
The Vanguardians
INTERGALACTIC WARPIGS
173
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Posted - 2014.02.09 18:20:00 -
[6] - Quote
Viktor Hadah Jr wrote:Your leaving a few things out.
First off your original post would work if there were not already so many Officer weapons already out. Because so many are out already people that are poor will dump the officer weapons to try to get ISK increase the supply drastically.
Well, the original post (btw who necrod this?), states that this will happen. I say that it will be best to buy in the beginning because people will sell their officer gear for a lot cheaper, it will be a buyers market.
Demand will out run the rate at which players can supply it.
I did not leave this out? |
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