The reason why capsuleers aren't in Molden Heath isn't because of pirates, but because they don't have any reason to. I went and checked the capsuleer IGS, and over there they said that there's no real benefit for capsuleers to be in Molden Heath, clone soldier presence there hasn't affected anything at all. Although honestly, we don't have much reason to be in Molden Heath either, only thing the districts provide us is a huge load of ISK. Things are really stagnant there right now, and people are fighting each other just for fun and not actually wanting to conquer any more districts.

But it has a lot to do with Pirates, specifically Calamitous Intent.

No major trade routes, primarily low-sec space, poor market viability, no specific resources, no mission agents of particular interest, and only one significant thoroughfare - the Republic's only link to the Great Wildlands and Thukker space. There's nothing of significance for a market hub to coalesce around (Dodixie and Jita, for instance, both sprung up around high-ranking Naval agents) so commodity supply is low, and it doesn't lie in the path of any major travel routes; the route into Amarr space goes through the much safer Odatrik-Jark jump at the Heimatar-Derelik border. Looking at current maps, the only possible travel use I can think of for Molden Heath would be if an outlaw in The Forge needed a back-door route into Ammatar space, which surely must happen occasionally, but not very often.

I asked my capsuleer friends why they avoid Molden Heath, and they disagree with you: