Damus Trifarn
The Yellow Lantern Corps
33
   |
Posted - 2013.09.03 00:26:00 -
[1] - Quote
This is an interesting development.... let's see if my time studying history can shed some light on the situation.
From a historical perspective, the only thing keeping the Amarr from war is defeat; nothing has stifled their conquests but the recent string of defeats at the hands of the Gallente, Matari, and Jove.
That being said, CONCORD will always put most of their resources to controlling the Amarr; a fiery zeal, when contained, has no ability to set ablaze the hearts of the Minmatar in what would be no less than all out war. CONCORD will have to enforce strict regulations to the point of certain annihilation of the Amarr should they choose to attack. The Minmatar won't be a concern; they are relatively at ease with the current relationship with the Amarr and will not attack (the Minmatar terrorists cells do not count; they are officially denounced by the Republic) unless provoked.
The regulations, of course, would disturb the Caldari; strict regulations of trading partners never works well for business. The Gallente may see this as an chance to strike at an economically weakened Caldari (depending on the impact of reduced trade), and of course the Amarr would never settle for the defeat of their allies (and more importantly, Gallentean victory), so they would have to go to war. The Minmatar will then see this as a chance to attack Amarr. The Minmatar, while allies of the Gallente, will not attack the Caldari; they have no interests in strengthening another faction, regardless of the current relationship (they may supply the Gallente with supplies, but no direct confrontation will occur). So, with this political and economic exchange we find ourselves in the midst of a Gallente and Amarr/Caldari war.
This is actually very beneficial for the Minmatar, and here's why:
The Caldari will be too focused on the Gallente to do anything to the Minmatar, so the Caldari are not a threat. The Amarr will have resources devoted to the Gallente, as well as CONCORD's regulations prohibiting war on the Minmatar. The Gallente will also have trade with the Minmatar, so the impact of strict regulations on the Amarr will not impact them as severely. With this situation, the Minmatar have two options: 1) give all indication of preparing for war and try to get the Amarr to panic and attack, giving them CONCORD as an ally, or 2) attack the Empire when they are weakest in the war and take as many Minmatar as they can with the possible help of the Gallente.
Option 1 is advantageous in that CONCORD's help, along with the Amarr's devoted resources to the Gallente, will give them certain victory, but they can only defend their borders. However, the Gallente may overtake the Empire and, thanks to their ideals, will give the Republic their people.
Option 2 is advantageous in that the Minmatar dictate the terms of the engagement, and will have Gallentean support of the attack, but will also have more chance of failure.
Ultimately the Minmatar can wait and bide their time for when the situation suits them best. It will be interesting to see how the next few days go; if CONCORD can soothe things over quickly, a crisis will be averted, but if they can't, then the above scenario may very well be reality. |